#比特币持有 Horse racing, poker, Bitcoin – can these three things actually be played using the same logic? A 30-year Wall Street Crypto Veterans' analytical framework is amazing 🔥

The core is: don't look at the price, look at the position. Munger is right, the essence of the market is a betting system, and the real odds are not in the headlines, but in the actual allocation of big capital.

My feeling is that those with substantial wealth and formal financial education evaluate Bitcoin at odds of 100:1 or even lower. However, from the perspective of pool betting, the low positions of this group of people are a signal in itself—indicating that high-quality targets + extremely misjudged opportunities are indeed right in front of us.

The era of artificial intelligence is approaching, and traditional growth moats are becoming increasingly fragile, while faith-based moats (such as Bitcoin) are becoming more valuable due to the craziness and uncertainty brought by AI. This logic is completely self-consistent.

Of course, it shouldn't be a mindless all-in; it should be based on your age, investment cycle, and cash flow needs. Young people have a strong risk tolerance and can recover from a 50-80% drawdown; but you shouldn't bet all your assets either.

Looking forward to the upcoming position transfer, the public will eventually enter the market, and by then the odds will have already changed 💎