#比特币持有 Recently, I've been looking at discussions related to Bitcoin holdings and found an interesting phenomenon — MSTR (MicroStrategy) has seen its stock price fall sharply, down more than 50% from its peak, while Bitcoin has only fallen 31% during the same period. What's going on?

Later I realized that it was the leverage effect at work. MSTR holds about 650,000 Bitcoins and purchased coins through stock financing, with a correlation close to 0.97, meaning that when Bitcoin falls, it falls as well, but due to the leverage, the volatility is amplified. To put it metaphorically: in a bull market, one can earn double the joy, while in a bear market, one has to endure double the pain.

What's even more heartbreaking is that the once-effective "sell stocks to buy coins" flywheel strategy seems to have failed. The company now has to rely on issuing convertible bonds and preferred stocks for financing, with an annual preferred stock dividend burden of 750 to 800 million dollars, which puts enormous pressure on cash flow. Therefore, they recently established a reserve fund of 1.44 billion dollars, partly to address market concerns like "will they sell coins to pay dividends?"

To be honest, this story is a bit complicated for a newcomer like me, but the core logic is very clear: holding Bitcoin directly and holding it through financing leverage involves completely different risks. This also explains why more and more people are saying that directly buying a spot ETF might be more cost-effective than such equity vehicles—less debt risk, less potential dilution risk, just purely holding Bitcoin.

I feel this is enlightening for long-term holders, what does everyone think?