The world is still in a "high interest rate + low growth" combination, with traditional asset risk appetite being generally low; funds are more inclined towards high liquidity and top assets (BTC/ETH) rather than small market capitalization tokens.

Cryptographic assets are more often viewed as "high volatility risk assets" in institutional allocation, with respect to macro liquidity and Federal Reserve interest rate expectations.
The market is highly sensitive; once "interest rate cut expectations" or "easing signals" appear, it often first reacts on BTC before spreading to altcoins.
Market sentiment divergence:
Medium to long term: Overall optimistic about blockchain technology and the supply contraction after Bitcoin halving;
Short-term: Highly sensitive to regulatory developments, ETF application progress, and macro data (employment, inflation), with news-driven market fluctuations intensifying.
On-Chain
(Not targeting a single cryptocurrency, describing typical characteristics of the "overall cryptocurrency market")
Activity Level:
The on-chain transfer numbers and active addresses of Bitcoin and Ethereum mainnets are relatively stable, sitting in a neutral zone of "not extremely sluggish, but far from euphoric." The active addresses of new public chains and Layer 2 networks (L2) tend to show more of a phase-based outbreak—strongly correlated with airdrop expectations, mining incentives, and popular applications, with limited sustainability.
Capital Flow & Position Structure:
The total amount of on-chain stablecoins (such as USDT/USDC) remains high, indicating that there is still "cash waiting for opportunities" in the market, but it is more inclined towards short-term participation. The proportion of long-term holders of BTC/ETH remains high, and the pattern of "old coins not moving, new coins frequently changing hands" makes short-term prices susceptible to emotional drivers.
TVL (Total Value Locked):
The total TVL in DeFi is distributed across multiple public chains, with Ethereum remaining the core, but leading L2s and new public chains continuously diverting liquidity. TVL fluctuations are highly correlated with coin prices: during price increase phases, nominal TVL rises; when prices pull back, TVL shrinks along with prices, and leverage and yield farming funds are withdrawn rapidly.

Technical Structure (Technical) ~ Simplified description from the perspective of the "Cryptocurrency Overall Index" (which can be understood as total market capitalization/mainstream coin basket):
1. Trend Structure:
Weekly level: Overall, it is still in a mid-term upward structure after the previous bear market low, but has already experienced a noticeable "main rise + pullback". Currently, it is more about oscillating to digest the previous gains. Daily level: The price is oscillating back and forth near a mid to long-term moving average band (such as the EMA 50/100 day band), with bulls and bears repeatedly contesting at the key moving averages, lacking a unilateral trend.
Key price level area (abstractly expressed as "total market capitalization index/mainstream basket index"):
Resistance zone above: previous high range (equivalent to the last local peak), tends to see profit-taking and emotional pullback each time it approaches.
Support area below: the overlap zone of the previous breakout range and important moving averages. Once broken, it is often accompanied by increased volume and fear.
Panic emotions escalate.
2. Indicator Signal:
Daily RSI: Fluctuates mostly between 40–60, indicating that the market is neither extremely overbought nor deeply oversold, leaning towards neutral and oscillating.
MACD: Frequent golden crosses/dead crosses near the zero axis indicate that the current trend strength is not prominent, and it is more of a range trading environment.

Risk Signal (Risk)
Macro Risk:
If in the future there is a "high interest rate maintained for a longer time" or new systemic risks (such as geopolitical issues or credit events), high volatility assets (including cryptocurrencies) will be prioritized for reduction.

Regulatory Policy:
New regulatory guidelines and enforcement actions against exchanges/projects may trigger a phase of "sudden liquidity reduction + sharp deterioration of sentiment" leading to a decline.

Market Structure Risk:
Leverage and contract position concentration: When the market is one-sided, it is prone to "chain liquidation," amplifying short-term volatility. Liquidity is concentrated on a few platforms and a few major cryptocurrencies; once a major platform/stablecoin encounters turmoil, there will be spillover effects.

Quantitative Modeling (Quant)
The following is an abstract strategy framework applicable to the "Overall Crypto Market Index/Mainstream Basket" (non-single coin signals):
Trend Following Model:
When the price stabilizes above the medium to long-term moving averages (such as EMA 100 days) and the MACD remains above the zero line, the bullish win rate has historically increased significantly. In backtesting, during the latter part of a bull market, the win rate of such models can maintain in the range of about 55%–65%, but in a sideways market, it is prone to frequent stop losses.
Range Trading Model:
During the sideways phase near RSI 40–60 and the MACD zero line, the "high sell low buy + small profit taking" strategy performs better than trend chasing.
Typical parameters:
Buy low: The price is close to the key daily moving average support and the RSI is near 40; Sell high: The price is close to the previous high/upper bound of the range and the RSI is near 60–70.
Position and Risk Control Recommendations (for Overall Cryptocurrency Portfolio):
In the core portfolio, a single cryptocurrency should not exceed 20%–25% of the total funds; for non-mainstream/small market capitalization projects, it is advisable that a single project does not exceed 3%–5% of the total funds; when using contract leverage, the total nominal position should be controlled within 150% of net assets to avoid being passively liquidated during extreme fluctuations.

Technical indicators need to be combined with MACD, RSI (makc)
makc Professional Technical Perspective (Overall Market Dimension):
MACD Dimension:
The current overall market is closer to a "repeated adhesion near the zero axis" oscillation state, indicating that the main trend is not strong, and chasing the price increase.
or the marginal returns of a sell-off are limited.
The appropriate operation is: After the first golden cross above the zero axis, gradually increase positions when the opportunity arises; after the first death cross below the zero axis, reduce positions or wait and see for new signals.
RSI Dimension:
When the mainstream coins collectively have an RSI > 70, it usually corresponds to a phase of overly optimistic sentiment, with historical statistics showing a significant increase in the probability of short-term pullbacks; when the RSI < 30, it is often a phase of extremely pessimistic sentiment, making the cost-effectiveness of gradually building long-term positions on the left side relatively better.
High, but it is necessary to accept the risk of a short-term continued decline.
Comprehensive Coordinates:
MACD > 0 and RSI 50–65: Slightly bullish but not overheated, can gradually increase holdings in major coins; MACD ≈ 0 and RSI 40–60: Neutral oscillation, mainly focusing on high sell low buy/grid.
Instead of chasing trends; MACD < 0 and RSI < 40: bearish or correction phase, focusing on reducing positions, defending, or patiently waiting.
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Comprehensive Conclusion (Summary)
The overall cryptocurrency market is currently in the "oscillation digestion phase after a mid-term rise:"
Medium to long term: Under the logic of technological evolution and supply contraction, mainstream assets still have allocation value;
Short-term: The trend signal is not strong, more suitable for controlling leverage and a defensive range trading approach.
Risk aspects: It is necessary to pay close attention to macro Intrerest Rate and regulatory dynamics, maintain diversified allocation and strict stop-loss.
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