The only sensible play left in 2025 is $LIT

Market feels so desperate. But if you force people to pick one token today, I think most would say LIT.

This view comes from a few angles:

➠ 1. Valuation

LIT is currently trading pre market around $1B mcap / $4B FDV.

Comparing to HYPE, it sits at $5.7B mcap / $24.1B FDV.

Not saying LIT will flip HYPE. But the gap still feels too wide and has not fully normalized yet.

What I actually like about LIT’s pre market chart is that it has not moved much. That is a good sign. Ideally, the real leg up should happen after TGE.

We have seen this pattern before. Strong pre market performance often leads to early profit taking, leaving the post TGE chart dry and down only.

➠ 2. Product

Lighter is clearly a product for retail users.

The 0% fee makes it 'feel like' cheaper than other perps even if slippage, spread, etc still matter.

Backing also matters here. With names like Robinhood involved, potential integrations into US TradFi could become a meaningful catalyst over time.

Positioning wise, Lighter is not trying to be Hyperliquid.

My base case is that Hyperliquid and Lighter can coexist as two winners, serving different user groups.

➠ 3. TGE Timing

Polymarket traders are currently pricing December 29 as the TGE date (75%).

What else happens on December 29?

The next HYPE unlock, roughly 9.92M HYPE or around $240M, hits the market. That increases the chance of short term sell pressure.

Lighter team wants to beat Hyperliquid so bad with all tactics in the past. I still don't understand why.

Because of that, I would not be surprised if they deliberately choose a date that increases the odds of a “LIT up, HYPE down” moment.

That said, this only works if the market does not fixate too much on fees.

➠ 4. Fee

This is where things get tricky.

Lighter's 0% trading fee offering becomes a problem in making numbers sensible to smart traders.

They care about long term value capture. Fees from Lighter is 5-7x lower than Hyperliquid.

If Lighter ever tries to adopt a HYPE style buyback narrative, the numbers will not look nearly as compelling

➠ Bottom line

LIT has a clean narrative, decent valuation asymmetry, and a potentially well timed TGE.

I think it currently sits as reasonable level but it can go down when airdrop users jeet. Will buy more at that point.