The surge in U.S. GDP growth raises concerns that interest rate cuts may become a "pipe dream," with the probability of a 25 basis point cut in January dropping to 13.3%.

On December 23, according to CME's “Fed Watch” data, after the release of today's U.S. macroeconomic data, the probability of the Fed cutting rates by 25 basis points in January next year has dropped to 13.3%, while the probability of maintaining the interest rate unchanged is 86.7%. Last week, the probability of a rate cut in January by the Fed had risen to 31%. The inflation-adjusted annualized quarter-on-quarter real GDP growth rate for the U.S. in the third quarter recorded 4.3%, with U.S. GDP growth surging, marking the strongest growth rate since the fourth quarter of 2023. The probability of the Fed maintaining interest rates unchanged until March next year is 54.4%, with a cumulative probability of a 25 basis point cut at 40.7%, and a cumulative probability of a 50 basis point cut at 4.9%. The dates for the next two FOMC meetings of the Fed are January 28 and March 18, 2026.