Soybean Complex Retreats on Softer Export Demand Despite China Deal

Weakness swept across the soybean complex on Monday, with nearby contracts showing double-digit losses as traders reassessed export demand following an official sale to China. The cash market for soybeans declined 10½ cents to $10.24, while soybean meal futures posted losses ranging from 50 cents to $1 per ton. Soy oil also participated in the selloff, dropping 45 to 50 points, extending pressure across the entire complex despite optimistic headlines from overseas orders.

Export Activity Disappoints Despite Fresh Chinese Buying

A private export sale of 132,000 MT of soybeans to China provided temporary support this morning, yet the underlying export data revealed a more cautious picture. Weekly shipment inspections logged just over 1.018 million metric tons (37.41 million bushels) for the week ending December 4—a stark 41.4% decline from the same period last year, though 10.6% above the prior week’s pace. Mexico emerged as the largest buyer with 132,050 MT, followed by China at 119,895 MT and Indonesia at 91,171 MT.

The marketing year total stands at 12.9 MMT (473.98 mbu), representing a worrying 45.2% drop compared to last year’s equivalent period. Export bookings painted an even more concerning picture, with weekly sales reaching only 510,554 MT—at the low end of analyst estimates spanning 0.45 to 1.6 MMT. China purchased 232,000 MT during the booking week, marking a significant retreat as traders sidelined buying on the recent price rally.

Financial Positioning Shifts Sharply

The Commitment of Traders data from late October revealed substantial repositioning ahead of high-level political discussions. Managed money investors aggressively expanded their net long exposure by 83,160 contracts to reach 118,489 contracts, betting on improved trade relations. Conversely, commercial hedgers added 96,154 contracts to their short positions, building up to 245,133 contracts—the largest commercial net short since May 2022 as long-holding managed funds liquidated positions.

Us Soya Oil Price Pressures Amid Demand Concerns

The US soya oil price came under pressure alongside the broader complex, with futures losing ground in sympathy with meal weakness. Bean oil sales during the reporting period reached just 12,549 MT, landing squarely in the middle of expectations (5,000 to 25,000 MT). Soybean meal sales lagged estimates at 93,483 MT against the anticipated 50,000 to 400,000 MT range, signaling reduced feedstock demand.

Global Supply Dynamics Adding Headwinds

Chinese import flows decelerated in November, with total soybean purchases reaching 8.11 MMT—a 14.5% pullback from October levels as buyers moderated pace. Meanwhile, Brazilian planting progress stands at 94% completion, still trailing last year’s 95% pace heading into their peak harvest window.

Contract Quotes and Market Watch

Jan 2026 Soybeans: $10.94¾, down 10½ cents
Nearby Cash: $10.24, down 10½ cents
Mar 2026 Soybeans: $11.06¼, down 9¾ cents
May 2026 Soybeans: $11.17¼, down 8¼ cents

Traders are positioned for Tuesday’s USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) update, with consensus expectations pegging US soybean ending stocks at 306 million bushels—a 16 million bushel increase from prior month projections should the estimate materialize. This fundamental backdrop will likely guide near-term price direction as the market calibrates supply-demand dynamics heading into year-end.