I didn't sleep early last night and just caught the quick five-minute pump of Ethereum. The community immediately blew up, with terms like "short squeeze" and "Large Investors' layout" flying everywhere. After being in this market for so long, I have to be honest: I'm basically numb to these sudden fluctuations, which don't reflect any long-term logic.

Indeed, large investors are continuously entering the market, and the liquidity on exchanges is also decreasing, with on-chain data showing this. But can we immediately conclude that there will be a surge? I remain cautious. Right now, the market resembles a repeatedly compressed spring, being squeezed back and forth at a critical position, and no one knows where it will bounce next.

Let me share my genuine opinions:

**In the short term, I tend to be conservative.** The price is stuck in a very awkward range - there is a line of moving averages firmly pressing down from above (around 2920 to 3120 USD), acting like a ceiling. Below, there are quite a few buy orders piled up around 2750 to 2800 USD, which is equivalent to a floor. Being repeatedly tossed around in this narrow space consumes the morale and capital of retail investors. That 1.15% pump is, to put it simply, testing the selling pressure above; it is "testing the waters" rather than a "full-scale attack." Without stabilizing above 3050 USD, it's better to be cautious.

**The contradictions in the capital side are more interesting.** On one hand, the ETFs are continuously experiencing outflows, indicating that some traditional funds are either holding their positions or exiting directly. On the other hand, the open interest in futures remains high, which means that a group of "smart money" is betting on significant fluctuations to come—yet no one can truly guarantee whether it will be an upward or downward movement. This contrasting signal actually suggests that a change in trend may indeed be near, but the current direction is still uncertain.