Should Ethereum be short or long now?

ETH fell below 2900 last night, and the current price is hovering around 2930. The key point is that the 50-day moving average has already crossed below the 200-day moving average—this signal has often been accompanied by at least a 20% decline each time it appears.

Looking at on-chain data, the situation is even more concerning. The number of active addresses has dropped to a 12-month low, and institutional ETF redemptions are still ongoing, which are not good signs. Some people claim that 2900 is the bottom, but that's just hype. On the short side, some traders have made $580,000 in two months of short positions. The underlying logic is quite clear—DeFi ecosystem lock-up volumes are showing a double top decline, the growth of stablecoins has stalled, and the collapse of altcoins has dragged down Ethereum's valuation.

Technical analysis is no longer reliable, but the data is there. The current issue is that the bears are gaining strength, and the support for the bulls is gradually breaking down.

(The above is just a market observation and sharing, not investment advice. Please make independent risk assessments.)