Can you still buy gold? The logic behind the all-time high and entry timing

Gold prices have been soaring all the way, from the starting point in October 2023 to reaching $2,700 in October 2024, and then breaking through the $4,000 mark in November 2025. This rally has led all investors to ask the same question: Is it still a good time to buy gold? According to the latest survey by Reuters of analysts, the average gold price for the entire year of 2025 is expected to be around $3,400, with a possibility of reaching approximately $4,275 in 2026. In other words, this upward trend still seems far from over.

But is investing in gold really that simple? Don’t rush to follow the trend; first, understand the deeper reasons behind this rally.

Three Major Drivers Behind Gold’s Record Highs

First reason: Global money supply expansion, cash is depreciating

After 2020, central banks worldwide began unlimited quantitative easing, with the US leading the way. These endless new currencies eventually evolved into inflationary pressures, forcing the Federal Reserve to aggressively raise interest rates in 2022. The result? Significant losses on US Treasuries and a decline in the dollar’s credibility. When confidence in paper assets wavers, people naturally turn to gold, a wealth storage tool recognized for thousands of years.

Second reason: Rise of alternative assets, challenge to the dollar’s dominance

Gold is no longer the only choice. Bitcoin has surpassed $100,000, and even the US President has indicated it as a strategic asset reserve. When the prices of cryptocurrencies and gold, these non-traditional assets, rise together, it reflects a global crisis of trust in the dollar. Coupled with tense geopolitical situations, central banks and institutional investors’ demand for safe-haven assets has surged, naturally pushing gold prices higher.

Third reason: Changes in financial system rules, re-evaluation of gold

The modification of Basel accords is a key turning point. Previously, gold was classified as Tier 3 capital within bank capital frameworks, making its status awkward. But after the revision, gold has been upgraded to Tier 1 capital, on equal footing with government bonds and cash. This greatly enhances its attractiveness to banks—gold is scarce, costly to mine, and cannot be printed endlessly. Compared to the constantly increasing supply of paper money, gold’s potential to preserve value is evidently superior. Banks’ enthusiasm for buying gold has soared, further driving up prices.

Is Now a Good Time to Buy Gold?

The answer is yes, but with conditions.

In the context of the Federal Reserve’s continued rate cuts and a weakening dollar, gold remains attractive as a “Tier 1 asset.” It’s estimated that trillions of dollars will flow out of the currency markets in the future, with some of that capital inevitably flowing into gold. But this does not mean gold will rise infinitely; the current high levels require cautious handling.

Gold now faces more competitors. The bond market is strengthening due to rate cut expectations, attracting capital inflows; cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin are also vying for risk capital. Our judgment is: Gold will still gradually rise in the medium to long term, but the pace of growth will slow, and short-term volatility may increase.

Compared to Bitcoin, gold remains a stable choice. Over the past year, Bitcoin’s gains exceeded those of gold, but its volatility is much higher. For conservative investors, gold’s relatively stable performance is more attractive.

The Best Entry Point for Gold: Technical Analysis Tells You When to Buy

Don’t blindly chase the high. The smartest approach is to wait for a pullback. Gold prices do not rise straight up; each dip could be an opportunity for low-cost entry. Profiting when prices rebound is the strategy of prudent investors.

From a technical perspective, gold is still operating within an upward channel. Using Bollinger Bands analysis, when gold prices approach the lower band, it’s an ideal buy signal. This position indicates a temporary oversold condition, with greater potential for subsequent rebounds. Conversely, when prices hit the upper band, risks have been fully priced in, and entering at this point can lead to being trapped.

In simple terms: As long as gold prices pull back to the lower Bollinger Band, it’s a worthwhile entry point for long-term investors. Unless the US government enforces through political means that central banks hold a specific proportion of US Treasuries, based on the current economic landscape, gold’s long-term investment value remains valid.

How to Choose the Most Cost-Effective Gold Investment Method?

Physical gold (bars, jewelry)
Not recommended for individual investors. Wide bid-ask spreads, poor liquidity, and storage costs make it less suitable. Only central banks and similar institutions should hold physical gold.

Gold futures and options
Good liquidity and narrow spreads, but high barriers to entry. Large margin requirements and low capital efficiency. Options have nonlinear returns, making it difficult for ordinary investors to profit.

Gold CFD (Contract for Difference)
The most suitable choice for individual investors. CFDs track the spot gold price, allow leverage trading, have a simple trading process, and don’t require frequent rollovers like futures or the complexity of options. Low costs and flexible operations make it the best tool for retail investors to access the gold market.

Who Should Invest in Gold?

Gold is not only a currency and a commodity but also a major asset class, making it suitable for almost all investors.

Central banks aim for inflation hedging and strategic reserves; gold has stood the test of history.

Hedge funds regard gold as a core asset because of its low correlation with other assets, helping to smooth net asset value fluctuations and manage risk.

Individual investors can include gold as part of their diversified assets. Proper allocation of gold can hedge risks, combat inflation, and enhance long-term asset growth potential.

Key conclusion: All types of investors can buy gold, but their motives, timing, and holding periods differ. The key is to choose the most suitable trading tools. Gold can be bought, but at the right time. If you believe in gold’s long-term value, patiently wait for a pullback signal, and establish positions around the lower Bollinger Band. There’s still room for this gold rally, but it’s no longer a time for blindly chasing the peak.