Just want to jot down some observations from this period when I have free time. Everyone can just enjoy reading it, no need to take it too seriously. I am an ordinary participant who makes a living through long-term holding, so I don’t claim to be a professional analyst.

Looking at the Bitcoin price chart on Christmas Eve, an interesting phenomenon emerges—the price is rising while showing strong cyclical fluctuations. To briefly summarize the patterns over the years and make a rough projection of the next few years.

**Insights from Historical Data**

Looking back, Bitcoin was only $666 in 2013, and by 2024 it has skyrocketed to $94,120, a more than 140-fold increase over 11 years. In the long run, the trend is indeed steadily upward.

What’s even more interesting is the rhythm of bull and bear cycles. The peaks of each bull market over the years have been quite regular—top at $13,926 in 2017, surged to $50,822 in 2021, and reached $94,120 in 2024, roughly every four years. This cycle aligns closely with Bitcoin’s halving mechanism. Naturally, there are inevitable corrections afterward—2018, 2022, and 2025 all experienced this.

A detail worth noting: although the absolute dollar value of the corrections increases over time, the percentage retracement actually narrows gradually. From the high point in 2024 to 2025, the retracement was about 7%. This somewhat indicates that the market’s size is growing, and the relative volatility is calming down.

**What to Expect from 2026 to 2030**

The next Bitcoin halving is in 2028. Combining this with previous cycle patterns, the upcoming years should follow this rhythm:

By 2026, continuing the momentum from last year’s correction, the price is expected to fluctuate repeatedly between $70,000 and $80,000. This is the bottoming phase as the bear market nears its end, and the days will be quite tough.

In 2027, things will be different. With the halving approaching, funds that have been pre-positioning will start flowing in, and the price will gradually rise, likely reaching $100,000 to $150,000. This is a warming-up phase, and market enthusiasm will also increase.

2028 is a critical year. The halving will occur, and a new bull market rally will kick off. The price is highly likely to break through the $200,000 mark, possibly hitting new highs. This is usually the most exciting period of the entire cycle.

In 2029, the rhythm will turn back. After the bull market peaks, a correction is natural. The price will fall back to the $150,000 to $180,000 range. Although still high, it will undergo some adjustment compared to the previous year.

By 2030, the situation will settle down. After the correction in the previous year, the price will find a new equilibrium between $160,000 and $200,000, entering a new period of consolidation, accumulating energy for the next halving cycle.

**Final Ramblings**

Of course, Bitcoin’s price does not operate in a vacuum. Policy changes, macroeconomic conditions, and market sentiment all exert influence from various angles. The above projections are purely simple extrapolations based on historical cycles; they should only serve as a reference for thinking and absolutely not as investment advice. The market always has surprises, and no one can predict every detail perfectly.