Ethereum bearish trend deepens: network activity plummeting and US fund outflows occurring simultaneously

Loss of Network Vitality… On-Chain Signal Warning Lights Turn On

Ethereum’s on-chain indicators have been sending clear signs of weakening over the past few weeks. Since December, weekly active addresses(weekly active addresses) have decreased from 440,000 to 324,000, a drop of 116,000, which is analyzed to be a retreat to May levels. Transaction volume has also fallen back to July lows.

Network activity indicators are key barometers for measuring market temperature. A simultaneous decline in active addresses and transaction volume signals that “market participants are increasingly holding back, and new demand is weakening.” In such a phase, prices tend to move in one of two directions: either further decline or sideways movement. Ultimately, to expect a rebound, trading and usage demand need to return.

Accelerating Capital Outflows from the US… ETF Net Outflows for 3 Consecutive Trading Days

Weakening supply and demand from US institutional investors support these on-chain signals. The US spot Ethereum ETF has recorded net outflows for three consecutive trading days, with a cumulative net outflow reaching $224.78 million. More concerning is the reduction in total net assets itself. Since December 10, the total net assets of US spot ETH ETFs have decreased from $21.43 billion to $18.27 billion, indicating ongoing capital outflows.

The Coinbase Premium Index(Coinbase Premium Index) has also fallen into negative territory. This means Ethereum prices on Coinbase(US exchanges) are lower than on Binance, widely interpreted as a sign that “selling pressure from US-based investors is intensifying.” The macro environment has also become more uncertain following macroeconomic data releases, increasing caution across risk assets.

Technical Weakness Dominates… Holding at $2,850 is Key

Volatility in the derivatives market is also increasing. Over the past 24 hours, ETH liquidation amounted to $101.4 million, with long positions accounting for most at $73.6 million. This indicates that “positions expecting an upward move have been liquidated more,” adding short-term psychological pressure.

The price currently remains in the $2,950 range, rebounding once from the $2,850 support level, but technical momentum still favors the bearish side. The RSI(Relative Strength Index) continues a downward trend below the neutral line. However, stochastic(Stochastic) has entered oversold territory, creating conditions for a short-term rebound.

Future Scenarios… Reclaiming $3,100 is the First Barrier

The key checkpoints for the bullish scenario are clear. If Ethereum recovers above $3,100 from the top, the strength of the rebound could increase, opening additional targets up to $3,470.

Conversely, the downside scenario is even more critical. If the price breaks below $2,850 on a daily basis, the next support zones of $2,400–$2,600 are discussed. Currently, Ethereum faces dual downward pressures of “network activity slowdown + US capital outflows,” so whether it successfully defends $2,850 and recovers to $3,100 will largely determine the short-term direction.