NVIDIA's earnings surpass expectations, triggering an AI rebound; global central bank monetary policies become a key variable

The latest quarterly performance report of AI chip giant NVIDIA exceeded expectations, directly reversing market concerns about an AI bubble. CEO Jensen Huang revealed that Blackwell chip sales far exceeded expectations, and cloud GPU products sold out immediately. This news is enough to ignite investor confidence in tech stocks.

NVIDIA Q3 Revenue Surges, AI Equipment Demand Still Unmet

Data shows that NVIDIA’s net profit for the third quarter grew 65% year-over-year to $31.91 billion; adjusted earnings per share were $1.3, beating market expectations of $1.25. Most notably, operating income reached $57.01 billion, well above analysts’ forecast of $55.19 billion.

Among them, data center revenue recorded $51.2 billion, again surpassing the expected $49.34 billion, a 66% year-over-year increase. CFO Colette Kress disclosed during the earnings call that the group expects to achieve $500 billion in operating revenue from the Blackwell and Rubin chip plans. Huang further explained that Blackwell Ultra has become the main architecture, with GB300 chips accounting for about two-thirds of Blackwell’s total revenue, while older Hopper chips still contribute $2 billion in revenue.

The group’s outlook for Q4 is also optimistic, expecting operating revenue of $65 billion, surpassing analysts’ estimate of $61.66 billion; gross margins (both GAAP and Non-GAAP) are projected at 74.8% and 75.0%, respectively.

US Stocks Rebound but Limited Gains, NVIDIA Leads Tech Sector

NVIDIA’s positive news drove a broad rebound in US stocks, with all three major indices rising. The Nasdaq gained 0.59%, the S&P 500 rose 0.38%, and the Dow Jones increased 0.10%. Although the gains are not strong, they demonstrate ongoing market optimism about AI prospects.

Performance of large tech stocks was mixed: NVIDIA rose 2.85%, Google increased 3%, Amazon up 0.06%, and Apple gained 0.42%. Microsoft fell 1.35%, and Meta declined 1.23%. Notably, Goldman Sachs President John Waldron( commented at this time that the market has seen significant gains this year, and a correction is normal; he further predicted a possible further decline. He emphasized that the market is overly focused on AI, but whether capital returns can truly meet expectations or are already reflected in prices remains debatable.

European stocks all declined, with UK, France, and Germany down 0.47%, 0.18%, and 0.08%, respectively.

Divergence in Fed Rate Cut Expectations Widens, December Hold Likely

Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s October policy meeting revealed serious disagreements among policymakers. Although some warned that rate cuts could weaken efforts to curb inflation—US inflation has remained above 2% for the past four and a half years—they ultimately decided to lower interest rates.

The minutes show many officials believe no rate cut is needed in December, with only a few suggesting a rate cut might be appropriate. Most officials mentioned that further rate reductions could increase inflation risks. The core debate centers on how tight current monetary policy is; some believe that even a 25 bps cut would be too tight, while others believe the economy’s resilience indicates policy is not restrictive.

According to CME FedWatch data, the probability of a 25 bps rate cut in December has fallen to 32.7% (from 48.9% the previous day), with the chance of holding rates steady rising to 67.3%. Looking into January next year, the probability of a cumulative 25 bps cut is 49.9%, with a 33.8% chance of no change; the probability of a 50 bps cut is only 16.3%.

Employment Data Delay, Fed Faces Data Vacuum

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics)BLS( announced it will not release the October non-farm payroll report; related information will be incorporated into the November report. The US November employment report has been rescheduled to be released on December 16, six days after the Fed’s last policy meeting of the year.

Additionally, the October JOLTS report from the Labor Department has been postponed to December 9. Due to the federal government shutdown, several official economic data releases have been paused or delayed. As the government shutdown ends, authorities are gradually resuming data releases. In this context of missing data, Fed officials are struggling to reach consensus, balancing the risks of rising inflation and a soft labor market, while warning that a sharp revaluation of AI investments could lead to disorderly stock market declines.

US Dollar Strengthens, Yen Appreciates, Cryptocurrencies Face Adjustment Pressure

The US dollar index returned above 100, rising 0.52% to 100.1; USD/JPY surged 1.06% to 157.18, hitting a new 10-month high. This reflects market reassessment of Fed rate cut expectations—lower probability of rate cuts makes the dollar more attractive.

The cryptocurrency market faces adjustment pressure: Bitcoin fell 1.55% in 24 hours, currently at $87.68K; Ethereum declined 0.59% in 24 hours, currently at $2.95K. Although Bitcoin remains close to $90,000, the overall environment faces downward pressure from macro factors.

Gold rose 0.24% to $4,077 per ounce, WTI crude oil fell 1.92% to $59.4 per barrel.

Trade Deficit Narrows Significantly, Weak Commodity Imports

US Commerce Department data for August shows the goods and services trade deficit was $59.6 billion, a monthly decrease of $18.6 billion, down 23.9%. August exports of goods and services totaled $280.8 billion, a slight increase of 0.1% quarter-over-quarter; imports decreased 5.1% quarter-over-quarter to $340.4 billion.

The reduction in trade deficit mainly stems from a $18.1 billion decrease in goods trade deficit to $85.6 billion. Notably, imports of industrial raw materials decreased by $11.3 billion (including a $9.3 billion drop in non-monetary gold imports), while imports of consumer goods, capital goods, and food & beverages declined by $3.7 billion, $3.4 billion, and $1.6 billion respectively, reflecting relatively weak domestic demand.

Tech Giants Act Frequently, Musk and NVIDIA Collaborate on Saudi Project

Google’s newly released Gemini 3 AI model received enthusiastic market response, driving Alphabet’s stock price to surge on Wednesday, with intraday gains reaching 6.9%, the largest since early September, and hitting a new all-time high. This rally reflects increased investor confidence in the company’s position amid changing landscape.

Elon Musk’s xAI and NVIDIA announced a partnership to build a 500-megawatt AI data center project in Saudi Arabia. Huang and Musk delivered speeches at the US-Saudi Investment Forum in Washington on Wednesday, confirming that NVIDIA is collaborating with Saudi Arabia to build a supercomputer center. Former President Trump also attended the forum, reiterating criticism of Fed Chair Powell, claiming interest rates are too high, and hinting that if Treasury Secretary Bessan fails to push for rate cuts, he will consider replacing him.

These actions demonstrate that, amid increased uncertainty in Fed monetary policy, technology and AI investments remain a key allocation focus for global capital.