A major data point has caused a stir in the market. BlackRock's Bitcoin spot ETF (IBIT) recorded a single-day net outflow of $332.6 million yesterday, setting a new record since the fund's inception. Once the news broke, many people started to get nervous—big players selling off, does that mean a decline is coming?

But there's an overlooked detail here. The so-called "BlackRock sell-off" is mainly a mechanical sell triggered by ETF investors redeeming shares, not BlackRock itself making a strategic move to short Bitcoin. Year-end profit-taking and portfolio restructuring by institutions are quite common operations.

On the other side, the story is completely different. Since its launch, the spot ETF has absorbed over $132 billion in funds, and US-listed companies have made their largest Bitcoin acquisitions since July in October. Big capital is quietly positioning, while panic is spreading.

What’s truly interesting is Bitcoin’s "Four-Year Cycle."

Looking back at history—Bitcoin has never experienced two consecutive years of decline. It fell in 2014, but then rose 40.9% in 2015. It declined in 2018, but then surged 79.4% in 2019. It dropped in 2022, but in 2023, it exploded by 159.8%. As of Christmas Eve this year, Bitcoin is down about 7% for the year. If this pattern continues, a rebound in 2026 could average as high as 126.4%. Wall Street institution Fundstrat has already set a target price of $200,000 for early 2026.

Why is this logical chain worth paying attention to? Because there’s an even bigger variable brewing behind the scenes—the transition of Federal Reserve power.

In 2026, the Federal Reserve will welcome a new chair. The new leader is likely to be appointed directly by the current US president, who is pushing for interest rate cuts. This expectation is fermenting in the market. Once the policy shift turns to easing, liquidity gates for all risk assets could be opened. Short-term ETF redemptions, the cyclical patterns in Bitcoin’s history, and the Fed’s monetary policy shift—these three forces combined could create a real perfect storm.

From another perspective, market panic itself is the best signal for positioning. Before every major rally, retail investors’ panic selling and institutional positioning often happen simultaneously. BlackRock’s $3.3 billion net outflow may seem alarming, but fundamentally, it’s a tactical year-end adjustment, not a strategic bearish stance.

So here’s the question: Is the current despair the last darkness before dawn? Or just another false signal in the downward sequence? Historical cycles, institutional positioning, policy expectations—these variables are intertwined, and perhaps the answer lies in the upward curve of 2026.