Bitcoin Trading Signals Emerge as Technical Indicators Shift: BTC Momentum Analysis

Bitcoin is showing fresh momentum as key technical indicators begin to align favorably. After finding support near crucial levels, BTC has recovered and now trades closer to the $90,000 psychological mark on Thursday, signaling renewed buying interest from both retail and institutional participants.

The latest on-chain metrics paint a mixed picture of market conditions. While institutional inflows into US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs have resumed with a $21.12 million positive flow on Wednesday (following $128.64 million the day before), these amounts remain modest compared to recent volatility. The second consecutive day of positive ETF flows suggests institutional selling pressure has eased, though the intensity falls short of what would constitute a sustained recovery catalyst.

Technical Backdrop: Where Does Bitcoin Go From Here?

Bitcoin’s daily chart reveals telling signs of shifting momentum. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently sits at 41, trending toward the neutral 50 level—a clear indication that bearish pressure is weakening. More bullishly, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has generated a crossover pattern that historically precedes price advancement.

These technical formations matter because they help traders identify entry and exit zones. If BTC maintains its current trajectory and clears resistance above $91,500, the next psychological target would be $100,000. Conversely, should momentum falter, BTC could retest support around $85,000 before finding stability.

For international investors tracking BTC to AUD conversions, the current price action remains volatile, making timing critical for those positioning across different currency zones.

Institutional Adoption: A Double-Edged Sword

The ETF inflow data deserves scrutiny. After experiencing significant outflows last week, the return of positive flows might seem encouraging. However, the $21 million inflow is marginal relative to Bitcoin’s market depth. This suggests institutional investors are dipping their toes back in rather than deploying capital aggressively.

Glassnode’s latest research highlights a structural vulnerability that traders shouldn’t ignore. Bitcoin currently trades within a $81,000 to $89,000 range—a formation disturbingly similar to Q1 2022, when the market experienced a multi-month decline following all-time highs. The parallel is uncomfortable because it implies the current weakness stems from vanishing demand rather than temporary profit-taking.

The Liquidity Question: Why It Matters

The most concerning signal comes from the Short-Term Holder Realized Profit/Loss Ratio, which has collapsed to 0.07—far below its neutral mean of 4.3. This metric essentially measures whether recent buyers are winning or losing money. When it drops this dramatically, it signals overwhelming losses among fresh participants and, critically, an evaporation of liquidity.

Low-liquidity environments create elevated risk. Fewer buyers and sellers mean larger price swings in both directions and increased vulnerability to sudden reversals. If this ratio remains depressed, the market could face further downside pressure toward the true cost-basis level around $81,000.

What Happens Next: The Consolidation Scenario

Until Bitcoin reclaims key technical levels and genuine institutional inflows return, expect low-conviction trading. The market is likely stuck in a holding pattern—neither fully bearish nor convincingly bullish.

Investors holding BTC for long-term horizons should monitor two metrics: sustained ETF inflows (not just one-off positive days) and a reversal in the profit/loss ratio. Either signal, combined with price action above $91,500, would suggest confidence is returning. Without those confirmations, patience and caution remain the prudent approach in this choppy environment.

The path higher exists, but it requires more than just a single day of positive flows. Institutional capital must flow in persistently, and market participants must move from loss-taking to profit-taking. Until then, Bitcoin remains in the grip of structural fragility.