Is the Bitcoin technical outlook flashing a warning? The death cross has appeared. Can the downward trend be reversed?

Prices Continue to Weakness, Key Support Levels Under Test

On Thursday Asian session open, Bitcoin hovers around $87,720, down more than 4% from the $126,080 high since the beginning of the year. This is not just a simple price correction but a signal of a major shift in market structure—high-position buyers are experiencing deep losses.

According to real-time data, Bitcoin’s 24-hour price change is only +0.35%, but the annual decline has reached -11.10%. During the same period, Ethereum is priced at $2,950, down -0.45%; Ripple and Solana have fallen by -0.42% and -1.03%, respectively. Behind this broad decline is a simultaneous retreat of institutional funds and retail enthusiasm.

Institutional Buying Dwindles, Spot ETF Continues to Bleed

Data shows that Bitcoin spot ETFs have been net outflows for five consecutive days, with BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust recording a record single-day outflow of $523 million. Since last week, cumulative outflows have exceeded $1.4 billion, the largest continuous outflow in 22 months.

What does this reflect? The purchasing power of institutions is weakening. CryptoQuant reports that the core demand wave of this cycle has passed: ETF accumulation has slowed, corporate coin purchases have basically halted, and institutional strategic fund purchases for the year have fallen to their lowest. This means the three main engines supporting price increases are all shutting down.

Trader Sentiment Reverses, 73% of Funds Bet on Decline

Market forecasts have become a barometer of market sentiment. On the Myriad platform, 73.3% of funds are betting on Bitcoin falling to $85,000, while only 26.7% are optimistic about rising to $115,000. For Ethereum, 62% of users believe the probability of dropping to $2,500 is higher.

Polymarket traders are also positioning around a weak scenario, with large buy-ins on put options and implied volatility rising. Data from Glassnode further reinforces this cautious atmosphere: short-term holders are realizing losses at the fastest rate since the FTX collapse.

Five Major Bearish Signals Have Appeared on the Technical Front

Death Cross Formed, Long-term Bearish Initiation

Bitcoin’s 50-day EMA has officially fallen below the 200-day EMA, forming the notorious “Death Cross.” This signal typically indicates that sellers have taken control and marks the start of long-term bearish momentum. Currently, BTC is well below both moving averages, creating a significant overhead resistance zone. Bulls need to regain above these levels to consider a rebound.

ADX Index Reaches 38.25, Downtrend “Powerful”

An Average Directional Index (ADX) > 35 indicates a very strong trend. The current reading of 38.25 suggests that the current decline is not chaotic weak oscillation but a genuine and robust selling trend. The extreme fear reading on the Crypto Fear & Greed Index also confirms this point.

RSI Falls into Severe Oversold, Rubber Band at Its Limit

Bitcoin’s RSI drops to 27.12, deep into oversold territory (<30). This indicates the price has been “stretched to the limit like a rubber band.” While not an immediate sign of reversal, it usually suggests the trend is nearing exhaustion, and a strong rebound could occur at any time.

Downtrend Line Forms New Resistance

If BTC loses the current test zone of $88,000–$89,000, there is little support to prevent a direct move toward $85,000. However, given the severe oversold RSI, a drop to $85K is likely to be a quick wick rather than a sustained breakdown.

Market Compression Indicators Show Bearish Signals

The market is releasing downward momentum, further confirming the authenticity of selling pressure.

Key Support Levels Analysis

To address further downside risks, investors should watch the following support and resistance levels:

First Support: $88,600 (active investor cost basis, a break below would mean overall losses for the first time)

Second Support: $84,451 (Fibonacci support level, close to Myriad traders’ betting point)

Third Support: $71,486 (major critical support, a break could turn the mild downtrend into a bear market structure similar to 2022–2023)

Recent Resistance: $92,000

Medium-term Resistance: $100,492 (downtrend line, very difficult to break)

What Is Needed for a Rise to $115,000?

To realize a bullish scenario, Bitcoin needs to accomplish three conditions simultaneously: recover from the Death Cross, break above the $100,492 downtrend line, and re-establish an upward structure. This is an extremely challenging task, which explains why less than 27% of traders are still betting on an upward move.

The Next Few Weeks Are Critical

Expectations of a December Fed rate cut have declined, institutional buying power is waning, and the derivatives market is fully hedging—these factors collectively increase the risk of further downside. ZondaCrypto CEO states that as economic uncertainty intensifies, Bitcoin “has potential room to fall further.”

However, the market is not predetermined. Glassnode emphasizes that short-term RSI oversold conditions often signal rebound opportunities, but the height of the rebound depends on whether buying interest reclaims dominance. The coming weeks will determine whether the downtrend deepens or support re-establishes. Currently, $88,600 has become a crossroads for the market—whether to break through or find support, this level will provide the answer.