Mature process crisis approaching: Reassessing the automotive chips shortage in 2026 and investors' cost expectations

Market Pre-emptive Response, Stock Price Fluctuations as Risk Signals

Over the past two weeks, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has fallen nearly 4%, with the decline in automotive power chips and low-end process groups surpassing the broader market. The most sensitive market indicators—Tesla, Ford, and General Motors—have already reflected supply chain risks in advance, with increased intraday volatility. Meanwhile, Taiwan’s mature process-related stocks such as Macronix, Silicon Motion-KY, and Novatek are also under pressure. The underlying investment logic is not short-term selling pressure but that institutional investors have begun to recalibrate their 2026 production scheduling and inventory models.

Changes in capital flows are even more apparent. Gold ETFs holdings hit a new high for the second half of the year, the US 10-year Treasury yield has fallen back to the 3.9%–4% range, and the US dollar has regained the 107 level. This typical rotation into safe-haven assets reflects the market’s early alertness to macro shocks. Some macro funds are even discussing that if the pressure on mature process supply chains continues into the first half of 2026, inflation could re-emerge due to cost-side factors, creating a “second wave of inflation” risk.

Expansion of Single-Plant Risks: Industry Spillover from Nexperia Halt

Dutch chip giant Nexperia’s automotive low-end semiconductor plant in Dongguan, China, has suspended production due to export controls and geopolitical factors. This is not just a regional supply chain disruption but is triggering a chain reaction across the globe.

The specific impacts are already quantifiable: Nissan and North American factories are reducing production by about 1,200 vehicles per month; Honda’s Asian plants are experiencing a 15–20% capacity reduction for certain models; Bosch’s German factory is seeing a daily reduction of 3,500–4,000 sets of components. Behind these figures lies the fragility of the entire automotive industry’s long-term reliance on just-in-time manufacturing—when a single supplier is interrupted, the entire production line often reacts with immediate reductions.

Nexperia plays a critical role in global MCU, driver IC, and most power semiconductor supply. Its Dongguan plant mainly supplies chips for ABS braking systems, electric windows, and ECU modules. At first glance, these chips are priced at only $1–$3 each, but because of their low cost, widespread application, and high supplier concentration, any production interruption can halt vehicle assembly—highlighting the most damaging aspect of low-end semiconductors in the global supply chain.

Short-term Gaps Turning into Structural Defects

Initially, the market expected only seasonal shortages, but multiple supply chain and research institutions have revised their outlook: this should be redefined as a “structural gap”.

According to estimates from international research firms, if Nexperia cannot restore over 80% of its capacity by December, the global supply gap for automotive MCUs could expand to 6–12% in the first and second quarters of 2026, surpassing the post-pandemic shortage levels of 2022. The chip shortage that year led to over 1 million vehicle production cuts; although this scale is smaller this time, industries highly dependent on mature processes remain alert.

Many Wall Street institutions have revised down Tesla’s 2026 delivery forecasts by 2–4%, and production plans for high-margin models from GM and Ford are also being recalculated. This means investors need to adjust their profit expectations for these companies next year—not just revenue declines, but also gross margin pressures.

Taiwan Supply Chain Early Warning

IC design companies have responded most quickly and candidly. Several have confirmed that “2025 orders are normal, but visibility for 2026 has significantly decreased.” Inquiry prices for automotive NOR Flash, PMIC, and MCUs have become more conservative, and investment banks have named Macronix, Silicon Motion-KY, and Novatek as “the most critical mature process exposures to watch next year.”

However, the real pressure will not appear in 2025 but in whether inventory reversal and slowdown in order placement will occur in 2026. This presents a challenge for investors’ cost assumptions: as inventories shift from expansion to contraction, both revenue and gross margins face downside risks, and such turning points often happen very quickly—requiring investors to pre-emptively forecast this inflection point to accurately calculate average stock costs.

Geopolitical Overlay of Supply Chain Risks

Supply chain delays and geopolitical tensions are compounding and amplifying risks. The US continues to update export controls, Japan’s diplomatic situation is heating up, and China is expanding export reviews of key materials. Europe is also re-evaluating the strategic value of mature processes.

US tariffs on Chinese-made auto parts further increase supply chain risks. These multidimensional geopolitical pressures are now crossing industry boundaries: Japan’s tourism and retail sectors are cooling due to fewer Chinese travelers, and Swiss chemical and pharmaceutical industries are under pressure from over 20% declines in US exports. This indicates that supply chain risks have become systemic threats across markets and industries.

From Low-Margin to Strategic Asset for Mature Processes

The current global semiconductor market is not experiencing the widespread shortages seen during the pandemic, but is entering a more differentiated risk structure: advanced processes (such as 5nm, 3nm) continue rapid expansion driven by AI demand, while mature processes (40–180nm) are being revalued as “strategic assets” due to geopolitical, concentration, and single-point risks.

Nexperia’s halt is just the beginning of this story. The core issue is: the world still lacks a rapid backup system. The key in 2026 is not when production lines will recover but whether supply chains can still tolerate concentration in a single country or plant. This is the next risk that Wall Street and policymakers are discussing: mature processes may shift in the next two years from “low-margin business” to “high strategic dependency” sectors.

Investor Reassessment and Decision-Making Window

For stock investors, this crisis offers not only a short-term opportunity for stock price volatility but also a window to foresee the reallocation of global manufacturing. While the market is still calculating the uncertainties for 2026, one thing is certain: this mature process crisis will impact far more than automakers and could reshape the next wave of the global tech manufacturing landscape.

When adjusting their average stock costs, investors need to consider these variables simultaneously: the downward revision of 2026 performance expectations, the timing of inventory reversal, long-term geopolitical constraints on supply chains, and the potential structural cost increases from mature processes. Proactively reassessing these factors will enable more rational allocation decisions before the market fully reacts.