#Gate2025AnnualReportComing

Bitcoin experiences volatility at the end of the year with moderate accumulation and institutional outflows totaling $1 billion – here are the latest updates:

Social interest is declining (December 25, 2025) – MicroStrategy's Bitcoin strategy is in question, social media activity reaches a multi-month low.
Cycle bottom forecast (December 25, 2025) – analysts suggest Bitcoin could hit a bottom around $37,500 by October 2026 if historical patterns hold.
Institutional shifts (December 25, 2025) – Bitcoin funds have seen a withdrawal of $460 million, with capital reallocating into altcoins such as XRP and Solana.

Details

1. Social interest is declining (December 25, 2025)

Overview: MicroStrategy's share in cryptocurrency discussions has fallen to 0.099% — the lowest since July 2025, according to Santiment data. Criticism of the company's strategy, based on long-term Bitcoin purchases, has increased amid sideways movement of BTC around $87 thousand. The probability of MSTR being removed from the MSCI index by March 2026 is estimated at 74% according to Polymarket.
What it means: Decreased social activity often indicates a capitulation phase, which historically precedes price stabilization. However, growing skepticism towards MicroStrategy's leveraged strategy (in a portfolio of 671k BTC) reflects increased investor caution amid macroeconomic uncertainty. (TokenPost)

2. Cycle bottom forecast (December 25, 2025)

Overview: Analyst Ali Martinez predicts a possible Bitcoin bottom around $37 500K by October 2026, based on historical corrections lasting 364 days after cycle peaks. This aligns with previous declines of 77-84% from highs but suggests a milder drop of 70% from the 2025 peak above $126 thousand.
What it means: Despite its speculative nature, the analysis emphasizes Bitcoin's cyclical pattern. In the short term, the price consolidates within a parallel channel on the 4-hour chart, with no clear direction until breaking above $90 thousand or below $95 thousand. (NewsBTC)

3. Institutional shifts (December 25, 2025)

Overview: According to CoinShares, last week saw a withdrawal of $460 million from Bitcoin-related products — the first net outflow after three weeks of inflows. Meanwhile, XRP and Solana funds attracted $63 million and $48 million respectively, indicating a shift by investors toward riskier assets.
What it means: These changes reflect caution regarding Bitcoin's short-term prospects and growing interest in altcoins. However, inflows into Bitcoin since the beginning of the year ($27.2 billion) still dominate, indicating long-term investor confidence. (Bitcoinist)

Conclusion

Bitcoin faces challenges due to declining social interest, institutional restructuring, and macroeconomic uncertainty, but historical patterns and structural accumulation (especially in Asia) provide stability. Will the options expiring on Christmas Day, December 26, become a catalyst for a breakout from the $85-90K range?