#美联储回购协议计划 December 25th, Jinshi data reported an interesting statistic——CME observations show that the probability of rate cuts in January 2026 is decreasing. The reason is straightforward: economic growth has exceeded expectations.

The leading candidate for Federal Reserve Chair, Hasset, then spoke out, with the core point that the true sources of growth are only three—falling prices, rising incomes, and improving market sentiment. He said very directly: if GDP maintains a growth rate of around 4%, new employment can return to the range of 100,000 to 150,000 per month, but he also frankly pointed out that the Federal Reserve has not kept pace with the situation in its rate cut rhythm.

How to view this? The economic growth in the third quarter mainly benefited from the inventory cycle and the easing of trade disruptions, but this is not enough to reverse the major trend of marginal weakening in employment. Currently, employment has become the focus of policy weighing, and with the Federal Reserve Chair candidate settled, based on this logic, there is still room for about 3 rate cuts in 2026. $BTC