December 25, 2025 BTC Christmas Technical Analysis (11:30, UTC+8)

• Current Price: Around 87,600, liquidity dries up during Christmas holiday, narrow-range oscillation; focus on high sell and low buy within the range, reduced volume makes piercing easier, strictly control position size and stop-loss

🎯 Key Price Levels (USD, precise layering)

• Support: 87,000 (intraday strong support) → 86,500 (life line for bulls and bears) → 86,000 (breakdown accelerates) → 85,300 (strong support zone)

• Resistance: 88,000 (intraday strong resistance) → 88,500 (neckline level) → 89,000 (psychological strong pressure) → 90,000 (trend dividing line)

📊 Multi-timeframe indicators and on-chain support

• Daily: 20/50 moving averages in a bearish alignment, price below the averages; MACD negative zone, RSI≈42 with no obvious divergence, bearish dominance; volume shrinking, weak oscillation

• 4H: Bollinger Bands narrowing, price near middle band; KDJ at low level flattening, MACD below zero line, consolidation signals; low volume, no clear direction

• 2H: Short-term moving averages intertwined, MACD repeatedly near zero line, short-term fast in and out signals; suitable for quick switching within the range

• On-chain and capital: Exchange BTC holdings at low levels, concentrated chips; perpetual contract open interest shrinks, market deleveraging accelerates, volume reduction makes piercing easier; this Friday’s $24 billion options settlement may trigger amplified volatility

⚙ Trading Strategy (actionable + risk control)

1. Range Trading (total position ≤ 30%, single trade stop-loss ≤ 2%)

◦ Long: Light position at 87,000-87,200, stop-loss at 86,700, target 87,800-88,000; reduce position by 50% at target 1, remaining position moved to cost basis at 88,500

◦ Short: Light position at 88,000-88,200, stop-loss at 88,600, target 87,400-87,600; reduce position by 50% at target 1, remaining position moved to cost basis at 87,000

2. Breakout Strategy (volume increase + 1H closing price confirmation)

◦ Long chase: volume surge and stabilize above 88,600, retest 88,300, chase long, stop-loss at 87,800, target 89,000-89,500

◦ Short chase: volume drop below 86,700, rebound to 86,900, chase short, stop-loss at 87,200, target 86,200-86,000

3. Risk Control Iron Law: Use limit orders or breakout orders only, avoid market orders; reduce overnight positions during low volume; monitor this Friday’s options settlement and adjust positions in advance

⚠ Key Reminders

• If 86,500 is lost, quick drop to 86,000-85,300; if volume breaks through 89,000, space opens up to 90,000-90,500

• Whale movements may trigger localized volatility, need to consider real-time trading volume for judgment
#加密市场小幅回暖 $BTC