Yen plunges below 157! "Triple Witching" volatility imminent, can BTC and ETH still dance?

Bank of Japan Rate Hike Lands, Renminbi-Yen Exchange Rate Signals a New Turning Point

The Bank of Japan raised interest rates as expected by 25 basis points, bringing the rate to 0.75%, the highest since 1995. However, Governor Ueda Kazuo did not provide the strongly hawkish guidance the market anticipated, resulting in a negative impact on the yen. As of press time, USD/JPY rose 1.05% to 157.09, indicating that the Renminbi-Yen exchange rate is also facing a new volatility pattern. The market had initially bet on more aggressive rate hike expectations, but the central bank’s “dovish” stance caused traders to sell off the yen directly.

The Monster of $7.1 Trillion Is Coming: Will the “Triple Witching” Really Shake the Market?

Today marks the most shocking “Triple Witching” day — options, futures, and index futures expiration all coinciding. According to Goldman Sachs data, over $7.1 trillion in notional value of options contracts are about to expire, with approximately $5 trillion linked to the S&P 500 index, the largest in history.

Analysts are all focused on the critical level of 6,800 points for the S&P 500. Such concentrated expirations often amplify volatility, and large block trades can instantly change market rhythm. In other words, today might not be an ordinary trading day.

US Stock Futures Are Already Reacting

Futures markets before the open are restless. Dow futures are up 0.14%, S&P 500 futures up 0.33%, Nasdaq 100 futures up 0.43%, indicating a potentially positive market opening. Popular tech stocks are also showing signs of movement — NVIDIA(NVDA) up 1.36%, Tesla(TSLA) up 1.13%, Oracle(ORCL) surged 5.95%, driven by TikTok deal developments and OpenAI funding negotiations.

However, this calm may be a prelude to a storm, as the power of “Triple Witching” often manifests in the late trading session.

Crypto Market Rides the Heat but Risks Are Also Amplified

The “dovish surprise” from the Bank of Japan ignited enthusiasm for risk assets. As of press time, Bitcoin(BTC) is at $87.73K, with a 24-hour change of +0.23%; Ethereum(ETH) at $2.95K, with a 24-hour change of -0.43%. Both are following the upward trend but with relatively moderate gains, indicating market expectations are still cautious.

More concerning is that approximately $23 billion in Bitcoin options contracts will expire next Friday, effectively planting a “mini triple witching” bomb in the market. If mainstream assets experience sharp volatility, leverage positions in crypto could face chain liquidations.

Precious Metals Show Clear Divergence, Funds Are “Rebalancing”

Platinum and palladium have risen for the seventh consecutive day, with platinum up 0.66% at $1,962 per ounce. Gold remains high but is oscillating slightly lower. The logic behind this is clear: some fund managers, after taking profits at the all-time high in gold positions, are reallocating funds into undervalued, more rebound-prone platinum group metals, creating a noticeable capital rotation effect.

What Should Traders Do?

In summary: Yen depreciation, changes in the Renminbi-Yen exchange rate, the potential for historic volatility from “Triple Witching,” and complex crypto market expectations. Today is not a day to relax; sudden market moves can happen at any time. Focus on key support levels for the S&P 500 and the upcoming trend of Bitcoin ahead of next cycle options expiration — these are the main themes for the coming week.