#比特币与黄金战争 Christmas Holiday Market Outlook: Gold Returns to Narrow Range Consolidation

On December 25th, major global exchanges closed for Christmas, leading to a significant contraction in market liquidity. After breaking through the 4500 mark—a historic resistance level—international gold began a typical technical correction dance: the intraday high reached 4525, then fell back to 4448, finally hovering around 4480 with repeated oscillations. This scenario is quite familiar: after reaching a new high, a correction is inevitable; bullish traders take profits and sell off, and the holiday atmosphere makes funds more cautious. Currently, the bulls and bears are temporarily evenly matched.

But the underlying logic remains unchanged. The foundation for gold's rise is still solid—expectations of Fed rate cuts are strengthening, the US dollar continues to weaken, geopolitical tensions have not eased, and central banks around the world are still continuously buying gold. These factors combined are the core drivers of medium- to long-term upward movement. The year's increase has already exceeded 70%, and this is not out of thin air.

From a technical perspective, this recent correction is actually a healthy shakeout, not a trend reversal signal. The RSI indicator has indeed entered overbought territory, so short-term volatility risks should be watched carefully. However, the MACD's red momentum bars are still growing, indicating that bullish momentum is still being released. This is a typical "rising a bit too fast, needs to catch a breath" situation.

Where is the core support? The 4450-4500 zone. The 4450 level is the intraday low and coincides with the 5-day moving average, so holding this level maintains the bullish structure. The 4500 integer resistance is a direct pressure point; once broken, the upward space opens up. The daily bullish arrangement looks very good, with prices running along the upper Bollinger Band. The 4-hour chart maintains a bullish structure, and the hourly chart steadily advances along the 5-day moving average. Overall, the pattern is relatively strong, but caution is needed regarding short-term overbought conditions that could trigger a correction.

Trading ideas:

If gold stabilizes around 4455-4470 after a pullback, consider a light long position with a stop-loss below 4445. Target the 4500-4520 range first; once broken, aim for 4540-4580.

Conversely, if gold faces resistance around 4500 during a rebound, consider a light short position with a stop-loss above 4510, targeting 4480-4475. But avoid blindly chasing highs; timing is crucial.

The direction after liquidity recovers is key. Currently, the market is oscillating and building momentum. Once the holiday ends and funds flow back, there is a high likelihood of a push toward the higher zone of 4550-4600. Short-term fluctuations are inevitable, but the medium-term upward trend remains unchanged—this is the true picture of the current gold market.