## U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls Data Arrives: Can September's Report Shift the Dollar's Downtrend?

Markets are holding their breath ahead of Thursday's (Beijing time 13:30) release of the September non-farm payrolls report by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. This delayed employment report has become the most watched focus at the moment, with traders eager to find new directions for the dollar's movement and clues about the Fed's next rate cut.

## Can Employment Numbers Revive Confidence?

Economists' expectations for September employment growth are diverging. Most forecast non-farm payrolls will increase by 50,000, a significant improvement from August's 22,000. However, analysts at TD Securities are more optimistic—they believe employment could rebound to 100,000, with private non-farm payrolls rising by 125,000, while government employment declines by 25,000.

The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.3%, and the year-over-year growth in average hourly earnings is expected to stay around 3.7%. On the surface, these figures seem stable, but behind them lies a deep segmentation in the labor market.

## Key Turning Point in Fed Policy

Recently, internal voices within the Fed have become increasingly cautious. The October meeting minutes explicitly state that policymakers are concerned that further rate cuts could weaken inflation control. This attitude shift has directly impacted market expectations—according to CME Group's FedWatch tool, the probability of a rate cut in December has fallen from about 50% before the meeting to 33%.

Meanwhile, signals of softening in the labor market continue to emerge. The U.S. private sector added 42,000 jobs in October, exceeding the expected 25,000, but layoffs surged by 183.1%, the worst October performance in over 20 years. The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) fell to 48.7, bordering on recession.

## How Will U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls Data Drive the Forex Market?

The recent rebound of the dollar has created new variables for the impact of the non-farm payrolls report. The EUR/USD pair has fallen back below the key 1.1600 level, and whether the downtrend continues depends on the strength of the employment data.

**Weak Scenario**: If non-farm payrolls are below 50,000 and the unemployment rate unexpectedly rises, this will confirm the fragility of the U.S. labor market and restore market bets on a rate cut in December. The dollar could face heavy selling pressure, and EUR/USD may test 1.1700.

**Strong Scenario**: If non-farm payrolls show significant growth and the unemployment rate remains at 4.3% or lower, the December rate cut expectations will be dampened, and the dollar will gain new upward momentum. In this case, EUR/USD could fall below 1.1400.

## Technical Signals for Trading

FXStreet analysts' latest assessment points traders in a direction. EUR/USD broke below the 21-day simple moving average of 1.1574 on Wednesday, and the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is below the midline, indicating bearish momentum is building.

If the downtrend continues, the next support is at the November 5 low of 1.1469. A further break below this level would threaten the 200-day simple moving average at 1.1395. For buyers, the psychological level at 1.1350 is the last line of defense.

Conversely, a rebound needs to be confirmed above the 21-day simple moving average of 1.1574 to be meaningful. The upside target points to the intersection of the 50-day and 100-day simple moving averages around 1.1650, with further突破可能达到1.1700整数位。

## Market's Ultimate Bet

Although September's non-farm payrolls report is delayed, it remains crucial for traders—this could be the last comprehensive employment data before the Fed's December monetary policy meeting. Regardless of how the figures are interpreted, they will set the tone for the next round of dollar and euro movements. The release of U.S. non-farm payrolls data will be a key variable in determining short-term exchange rate directions.