Gold and silver both break through new highs, Bitcoin hovers around $90,000 — Wan Da's roadmap points the way

Macroeconomic Changes, Crypto Assets Begin to “Decouple”

On Friday, the market showed an interesting divergence: gold and silver performed remarkably well, US stock indices rebounded, but Bitcoin repeatedly tested the $90,000 level. This is not a coincidence but a reflection of the differentiated effects of macro policies across various asset classes.

After the Fed cut interest rates on Wednesday, the US dollar index weakened to its lowest level since mid-October. Generally, a depreciating dollar benefits various hedging assets. Silver led the charge, soaring 5% to create a historic high of $64; gold was not far behind, rising over 1% to approach $4,300. In contrast, Bitcoin appeared somewhat weak—despite signs of gradually rising lows on the technical side, its upward momentum was clearly insufficient.

Jasper De Maere, strategist at Wintermute Trading, pointed out the fundamental reason for this phenomenon: the correlation between crypto assets and the stock market is weakening. Over the past year, during macro event trading days, Bitcoin outperformed Nasdaq only 18% of the time. Thursday was a typical example—US stocks rebounded, but the crypto market declined. De Maere believes the market has fully priced in rate cut expectations, and the marginal effect of easing policies on crypto assets is diminishing. More importantly, investors are shifting their focus from Fed policies to US crypto regulation policies, which may become the dominant factor in the future.

Contradictions Between Market Sentiment and Data

From recent market performance, some positive signals are indeed emerging. Swissblock’s data analysis shows that Bitcoin’s downward pressure is easing—the second wave of sell-offs was significantly weaker than the first, indicating initial signs of stabilization. However, these signals are not yet strong enough to confirm a trend reversal.

Analysts point out that in an environment where the dollar is weak and gold and silver are rising together, Bitcoin should be performing more strongly. But the opposite is true—this suggests a lack of buyer confidence, with bears still exerting pressure on prices.

On Thursday, Bitcoin briefly regained the $93,000 level shortly after US stock market close but then entered consolidation. Currently, it is trading at $87.75 (latest real-time data), up slightly by 0.22% in the past 24 hours. Ethereum fell 0.34% to $2.95; ADA and AVAX declined 0.83% and 0.16%, respectively.

Technical Patterns: From Daily to Four-Hour Progression

Looking at longer timeframes, Bitcoin’s performance in Q4 has been less than ideal. Its attempt to reach $125,000 ended in failure, with a subsequent decline of 36.22%, until around $80,000 attracted buyers again. During this decline, the dollar broke out upward from a descending wedge and continued to strengthen, which was highly correlated with Bitcoin’s sell-off—showing a clear inverse relationship.

Now that the dollar has weakened, Bitcoin has rebounded accordingly, but the recovery has lagged behind the dollar’s mirror movement. On the weekly chart, the past three weekly candles all show prominent upper wicks, indicating each rebound faced persistent selling pressure, especially at the critical $90,000 level, where Bitcoin has struggled to sustain longer-term stability above.

However, on the daily chart, the situation appears somewhat more optimistic. Since the price touched $80,000, Bitcoin has been gradually forming a “higher low” structure—one of the most important bullish signals in technical analysis. Market acceptance of the $90,000 level is also slowly increasing. Coupled with rising lows, recent rebound highs have slightly climbed, with Monday’s peak reaching as high as $94,652.

Key Breakout on the Four-Hour Chart

Turning to shorter timeframes, Bitcoin’s pattern becomes even more noteworthy. On the four-hour chart, Bitcoin is forming a classic ascending triangle pattern—previous support levels are gradually transforming into resistance, with horizontal resistance around $93,961. A successful breakout above this level would set the next major target near $100,000, with the previous high of $99,939 being a key point for bulls to watch.

This is the “Ten Thousand Line” of Bitcoin’s roadmap—breaking $93,961 is just the first step; the real test is whether it can sustain upward movement past $100,000. If the pattern holds, it would be a crucial signal confirming an uptrend.

Focus of Bull-Bear Battle

Regarding the future trend, there are two very different interpretations:

The bulls believe that the downward trend has lost its momentum, and the short-term charts have already formed a “higher high + higher low” bullish structure, providing a technical basis for further upward movement. The ascending triangle on the four-hour chart also offers a clear trading direction.

The bears, however, point out that despite the dollar’s obvious weakness and the breakthroughs in gold and silver, Bitcoin’s weak performance indicates its upward momentum remains insufficient. If even favorable conditions cannot push the price higher, concerns about further upside increase.

Conclusion

Currently, Bitcoin is at a delicate turning point. Short-term technical signals are optimistic, but macroeconomic uncertainties remain. The breakthroughs in gold and silver provide a reference framework—when hedging assets are all seeking to break through, Bitcoin’s relative weakness appears even more conspicuous.

Using the “Ten Thousand Line” roadmap as an evaluation standard, the key next step is whether it can break above $93,961 and continue toward $100,000. This is not only a technical test but also the ultimate test of market confidence.