Will Gold Rise in 2025? What Data and Experts Say About the Future of the Precious Metal

Gold in December: Consolidation or New Boost?

Between mid-November and mid-December 2025, the precious metal showed a consistently firm behavior, staying around $4,300-$4,350 per ounce. This trading range represents a level not seen since October, reflecting renewed market participants’ interest in seeking protection through safe assets.

The technical structure of gold has demonstrated strength despite the characteristic year-end volatility. The lower trading volume typical of this period suggests that future movements will be more driven by technical factors than by aggressive speculative moves.

What Factors Support Gold at These Heights?

The metal’s strength in recent months is due to several fundamental pillars. The expected monetary easing by central banks has played a central role, particularly expectations that the Federal Reserve will adopt a more accommodative stance. A weaker dollar in this context has significantly enhanced gold’s appeal to investors in other currencies.

The defensive sentiment remains predominant in global markets. The combination of geopolitical risks and macroeconomic uncertainties has kept institutional investors seeking coverage through specialized ETFs and physical gold markets.

Structural demand from central banks, especially from emerging economies and China, continues to provide a support floor. More than a third of global monetary authorities plan to increase their reserves this year, creating a steady flow of purchases.

Technical Outlook for the Coming Weeks

Looking toward the period between mid-December and mid-January, the technical outlook suggests a possible sideways consolidation with a slight upward bias. The reduced trading activity typical of year-end will likely generate oscillations around key support and resistance levels.

Technical Reference Points for the Next Thirty Days:

• Main Resistance Barrier: $4,400-$4,450/oz
• First Support Level: $4,200-$4,250/oz
• Bullish Extension Target: $4,500/oz

If macroeconomic fundamentals maintain their current orientation, the metal could stay supported at its elevated levels, especially if the same driving factors that characterized its behavior during 2025 continue.

A Journey Through the Gold Markets: October to November

During October to November, gold experienced a cycle combining upward impulses with necessary technical corrections. The price broke the psychological barrier of $4,000 per ounce in early November, driven by expectations of interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve.

However, more conservative statements from US monetary authorities and the subsequent dollar recovery exerted corrective pressures. Physical markets in Asia showed signs of demand fatigue, adding complexity to the scenario.

The expected 25 basis point rate cuts at year-end kept the bullish narrative alive, albeit with increased short-term volatility. Flows into gold ETFs acted as an additional catalyst for gains.

From Summer to Autumn: An Almost Uninterrupted Rise

The trajectory from September to October was particularly dynamic. In early September, the metal hit consecutive highs, first surpassing $3,500, then $3,600, reaching a peak of $3,673.95. Dollar weakness, declining bond yields, and expectations of rate cuts were the main drivers.

Although August showed downward pressures due to strong US employment data, the scenario changed radically when labor indicators began to cool in September. Market consensus converged on the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut, reigniting enthusiasm for precious metals.

Mid-month, the release of the consumer price index was not strong enough to alter the narrative. Market participants maintained their stance: the Fed would act soon, and gold would benefit.

The First Half of the Year: Volatility and New Highs

Between May and June, gold’s behavior was particularly instructive. The price reached eleven-week highs around $3,430 in early June, reflecting the best performance since April. However, overbought levels in technical indicators suggested a pause was near.

The 1.8% jump on June 12 was driven by benign core inflation data (0.1% monthly), reinforcing expectations that the central bank would keep rates unchanged in June and consider cuts starting September.

When Israeli bombings of Iranian facilities occurred on June 13, safe-haven demand surged: futures contracts jumped to $3,432, and the stock market volatility index hit three-week highs.

Meanwhile, central banks channeled 244 tons of purchases in the first quarter, maintaining the pace in the second, with Poland and China leading the movement. Institutions, alerted by stock market volatility, also increased their hedges.

The Role of Millions of Converging Factors

Gold’s trajectory in 2025 has been determined by a constellation of variables interacting in complex ways. When inflation moderates but geopolitical tensions persist, when the dollar weakens but Treasury yields offer moderate returns, the outcome is not always predictable.

The Pillars of the Bullish Movement:

Dollar weakness has been fundamental. With the dollar index under pressure since summer, gold has become more accessible to investors denominated in euros, pounds, and other currencies.

Trade tensions between the US and China, with tariffs reaching 145% on certain products, created a safe-haven premium that directly benefited the metal. Markets feared an escalation that would slow global growth.

Fed rate cuts, although not as aggressive as some expected, have reduced the opportunity cost of holding gold, an asset that does not generate yield but provides protection.

Central bank purchases have provided a nearly uninterrupted demand flow, with emerging and developed economies strengthening their strategic reserves.

What Leading Analysts Say for 2025

Major investment banks have issued forecasts ranging from $2,750 to $2,973 per ounce for the end of 2025:

Goldman Sachs projects $2,973, anticipating a historic rise of up to 10% after the Fed’s initial rate cuts. This forecast assumes rate cuts will weaken the dollar and increase safe-haven demand.

Bank of America sets its target at $2,750, arguing that rate cuts, central bank purchases, and geopolitical instability will provide support.

JP Morgan estimates $2,775, emphasizing demand from China, central bank appetite, and flows into retail ETFs as key variables.

UBS aligns with Goldman Sachs at $2,973, indicating that interest rate cuts and central bank purchases will be the main drivers of the movement.

What to Watch in the Coming Months

Investors considering adding gold to their portfolios should pay attention to several macroeconomic events that could define the metal’s trajectory.

The European Central Bank’s monetary policy decisions in October and December will determine the euro’s strength and, by extension, gold’s relative attractiveness. A weaker euro would favor the metal.

Federal Reserve meetings in October and November will be critical. Any indication of a faster or slower rate cut cycle will affect the dollar and consequently the gold price.

Inflation and employment reports in the US, Europe, and Asia will remain key indicators. Surprisingly weak data would reinforce expectations of rate cuts, benefiting gold.

The evolution of the Middle East conflict, particularly tensions between Israel and Iran, remains a factor that could cause abrupt jumps in safe-haven demand.

Why Does Gold Remain Relevant to Investors?

The precious metal has demonstrated for millennia its ability to preserve value through economic crises, conflicts, and political transformations. Over the past 20 years, gold has experienced significant appreciation, albeit with notable fluctuations.

Fundamental Reasons to Consider Gold in a Portfolio:

Genuine Diversification: Gold tends to behave differently from stocks and bonds during market turbulence. Including it helps reduce overall portfolio volatility.

Protection Against Currency Depreciation: During periods of accelerated monetary expansion, gold has maintained its purchasing power better than most fiat currencies.

Stability in Uncertain Times: During episodes of political or economic instability, gold tends to hold or appreciate its value while other assets correct.

Limited Supply: The amount of gold in the world grows slowly, providing a foundation for long-term value preservation.

Different Ways to Participate in the Gold Market

Investors have several options depending on their risk profile and operational preferences.

Acquiring gold bars or coins provides tangible physical holding, ideal for those seeking direct security, though storage and insurance costs should be considered.

Shares of gold mining companies and specialized ETFs allow indirect exposure without logistical complications of physical metal.

Derivative instruments like contracts for difference (CFDs) enable participation in price movements without physical possession, allowing gains in bullish and bearish scenarios, though with amplified risks.