Gold Price Trend Analysis: Is There Still a Chance in 2025?

From 2024 to 2025, the global markets are turbulent, and gold price trend analysis has become a focal point for investors. After reaching a historic high of $4,400 per ounce in October and then softening, market enthusiasm has not diminished. Many investors are still watching: Can prices continue to rise this year? Is it too late to enter now?

To grasp the core of gold price trend analysis, one must first understand the fundamental logic behind price fluctuations. Below, we analyze the key issues of this gold market rally one by one.

The Core Logic Behind Continuous Appreciation of Gold

Why has gold performed so well in the past two years?

Gold has surged nearly 30 years’ worth of gains over the past 24 months. According to Reuters, the increase in 2024-2025 has exceeded 2007’s 31% and 2010’s 29%, demonstrating the strength of this rally. In October, gold also broke through the psychological barrier of $4,300, setting a new record.

Five major factors influence the gold price trend analysis:

Factor 1: Geopolitical and tariff policies driving safe-haven demand

Since Trump took office, a series of tariff policies have been introduced, directly increasing market uncertainty. Historical experience (such as the 2018 US-China trade war) shows that during periods of policy ambiguity, gold typically experiences a short-term surge of 5-10%. The rise in risk aversion naturally boosts gold’s attractiveness.

Factor 2: Expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts

Central bank rate cuts lead to a weaker dollar and reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold, directly elevating gold’s relative value. Historical data shows—gold prices have a clear negative correlation with real interest rates: when rates fall, gold rises; when rates rise, gold declines.

Why did gold prices fall after the September FOMC meeting? Because a 25 basis point rate cut was fully expected and already priced in by the market. Powell characterized it as a “risk management rate cut,” without signaling further cuts, leading to market caution about future policy directions.

Real interest rate = Nominal interest rate – Inflation rate. The Fed’s decisions heavily influence nominal rates, indirectly affecting gold performance. According to CME interest rate futures data, the probability of a 25 bps rate cut in December is as high as 84.7%. Investors can use FedWatch’s real-time updates to assess the gold price trend analysis logic.

Factor 3: Changes in global central bank gold reserve strategies

The World Gold Council(WGC)’s latest data shows that in Q3 2025, global central banks net purchased 220 tons of gold, a 28% increase quarter-over-quarter. In the first nine months, central banks bought a total of 634 tons, slightly below the same period last year but still well above historical averages.

More importantly, in the WGC’s survey on central bank gold reserves, 76% of respondents indicated they plan to “moderately or significantly increase” gold holdings over the next five years, while most expect the “US dollar reserve ratio” to decline. This reflects a long-term increase in global confidence in gold as a reserve asset.

Factor 4: High global debt and slowing economic growth

By 2025, global debt has reached $307 trillion(IMF data). High debt levels constrain countries’ monetary policy flexibility, leading to a tendency toward easing, which indirectly lowers real interest rates and boosts gold’s long-term appeal.

Factor 5: Shaking confidence in the US dollar and geopolitical conflicts

When the dollar weakens or market confidence falters, gold priced in dollars benefits. Ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, tense Middle East situations, and other geopolitical tensions increase safe-haven demand for precious metals, often causing short-term volatility. Additionally, continuous media coverage and social media buzz drive short-term capital inflows.

How do expert institutions view the gold price outlook?

Despite recent corrections, major international institutions remain optimistic about gold price trend analysis in the long term.

J.P. Morgan’s commodities team considers the recent pullback a “healthy correction,” and after signaling short-term risks, remains bullish on the long-term outlook, raising their Q4 2026 target to $5,055 per ounce.

Goldman Sachs maintains its previous optimism, reaffirming a target of $4,900 per ounce by the end of 2026.

Bank of America also holds a constructive view on precious metals. After raising their 2026 target to $5,000, strategists recently indicated gold could challenge $6,000 next year.

Domestic jewelry chains (Chow Tai Fook, Luk Fook, Chow Sang Sang, Chow Tai Seng, etc.) maintain reference prices above 1,100 yuan/gram, with no obvious decline, reflecting the resilience of the gold market.

How should retail investors respond to this gold price trend?

Once you understand the gold price trend analysis logic, you’ll see that this rally is far from over. Both medium-long term and short-term opportunities remain. The key is to avoid blindly following the trend.

For experienced short-term traders:

Volatile markets offer excellent trading opportunities. Liquidity is ample, making short-term movements easier to judge. During sharp surges or drops, the momentum of bulls and bears becomes clear. Traders with experience can ride the wave more easily. Use economic calendars to track US economic data to assist decision-making.

For beginners trying short-term trading:

Remember one principle: start with small amounts to test the waters, and avoid blindly increasing positions. If your mindset collapses, losses can escalate quickly. Avoid chasing high at peaks or cutting losses at lows repeatedly, which erodes capital.

For long-term physical gold holders:

Entering now requires psychological readiness for significant volatility. Although the long-term bullish logic remains unchanged, whether you can withstand sharp fluctuations needs to be assessed in advance.

For asset allocators:

Gold’s volatility is not lower than stocks( with an average annual amplitude of 19.4% vs. S&P 500’s 14.7%). It should not constitute the entire investment portfolio. Diversification is always a safer choice. Physical gold also involves higher transaction costs—around 5%-20%—which should be considered.

For investors seeking maximum returns:

On the basis of long-term holdings, using price fluctuations for short-term operations is a strategy. Volatility around US market data releases is often most intense. If you have sufficient experience and risk control, you can seize opportunities. But this requires deep market understanding and strict stop-loss discipline.

Three important reminders:

Gold cycles are very long. As a hedging tool, it should be considered on a time scale of 10 years or more. The value may double or halve during this period, so mental preparedness is essential.

Do not concentrate all your funds in a single asset. Although gold has safe-haven properties, it is not a perfect investment.

The complexity of gold price trend analysis demands rationality from investors. Especially during market exuberance and media hype, caution against risks is crucial.