2024 US CPI Release Schedule and In-Depth Analysis of the Yearly Trend

Investor Must-Read: Complete Schedule for the US CPI Announcements in 2024

Before trying to catch the bottom or escape the top, you must lock in the US CPI announcement times. The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) is one of the most sensitive economic data points in the global capital markets. Once the figures exceed expectations, they can trigger sharp volatility in major asset classes within minutes.

The US CPI release is fixed on the first business day of each month or the closest business day. The specific release time varies due to daylight saving time. During daylight saving time, Taiwanese investors need to watch at 8:30 PM, while in standard time, it’s 9:30 PM.

The detailed schedule for 2024 (Taiwan time) is as follows:

• January 11, 21:30
• February 13, 21:30
• March 12, 21:30
• April 10, 20:30
• May 15, 20:30
• June 12, 20:30
• July 11, 20:30
• August 14, 20:30
• September 11, 20:30
• October 10, 20:30
• November 13, 21:30
• December 11, 21:30

US CPI Trend Forecast for 2024: Why Is a Significant Downward Movement Unlikely Throughout the Year?

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) latest forecast indicates that the US economy will grow by 2.1% in 2024, ranking second among major global economies. This suggests that the US economic fundamentals remain resilient, and inflationary pressures will not easily dissipate.

The biggest variables influencing inflation this cycle come from three directions: first, the supply chain risks brought by the political uncertainty of an election year; second, whether the Federal Reserve’s rate cut pace will truly follow market expectations; third, the ongoing impact of the Red Sea crisis on global logistics costs. According to CME Group futures data, the market most heavily predicts a 6 basis point rate cut by the Fed before the end of 2024, implying that the market expects the US CPI to decline quarter by quarter.

But reality may not be that simple. Oil inventories are currently declining, supporting oil prices. Additionally, since early December 2023, the freight rates on Eurasian routes have increased by over 100%, and these costs will eventually be passed on to consumers. Our judgment is that the US CPI will bottom out in Q1 2024, rebound in Q2, and then decline again in the second half of the year.

CPI vs Core CPI vs PCE: What Are the Differences?

A common misconception in the market is to treat all inflation indicators equally. In fact, there are two main series of US inflation data, each with multiple variants.

The core difference between CPI and Core CPI lies in their weights. CPI includes all consumer goods and services and is highly sensitive to food and energy prices. Core CPI excludes these two volatile components, better reflecting underlying price trends. If you see CPI plummet but Core CPI stay stable, it is likely just an illusion caused by falling energy prices.

CPI and PCE seem similar but are calculated very differently. CPI uses a Laspeyres (fixed-basket) weighting method, while PCE employs a chain-weighted approach. The latter has a clever feature—it automatically reflects substitution effects. When oil prices surge, consumers choose alternative energy sources, leading PCE to automatically reduce the weight of crude oil, smoothing out the impact. Because of this characteristic, the Fed pays more attention to PCE in its decisions.

Year-over-year vs month-over-month: The YoY rate compares with the same period last year, removing most seasonal disturbances and more stably reflecting long-term trends. MoM figures are more volatile and can be overshadowed by short-term noise. Investors should focus on the US CPI YoY and the US PCE YoY— the former is released earliest and market-sensitive; the latter is the Fed’s decision basis and equally critical.

What Composes the US CPI? These Ratios Determine the Direction of Its Rise or Fall

The US CPI is a weighted average of a basket of goods and services, with approximate proportions as follows:

• Housing (including rent): 30–40%
• Food and beverages: 13–15%
• Education and communication: 6–7%
• Energy: 6–8%
• Medical insurance: 7–9%
• Transportation services: 5–6%
• New and used cars: 5–8%
• Leisure and entertainment: 3–5%
• Clothing and apparel: 2–3%

Housing, accounting for nearly 40%, largely determines the overall trend of CPI. As long as rent and housing prices remain stable, inflation will be hard to spiral out of control. Food and beverages, at around 15%, are also key monitoring targets.

Thirty-Year Four-Phase Cycle: Will History Repeat?

Over the past 30 years, the US experienced four significant CPI volatility events, each coinciding with economic crises:

• Early 1990s savings and loan crisis and Gulf War caused oil shocks, leading to CPI drops.
• The dot-com bubble burst and 9/11 attacks caused another downtrend.
• The 2008 subprime mortgage crisis led to CPI collapse, followed by Fed stimulus pushing prices higher.
• The latest was in 2020. The pandemic abruptly halted the economy, causing a short-term CPI plunge, but the Fed’s massive liquidity injections pushed CPI to a historic high by June 2022. It only began to gradually decline as the pandemic eased and logistics normalized.

This history signals an important message: global logistics conditions have a far greater impact on US CPI than many realize. The Red Sea crisis at the end of 2023 reaffirmed this. The attack on Houthi forces forced shipping reroutes, doubling Eurasian route freight rates temporarily. While milder than the shocks from late 2020 pandemic and 2021 “Ever Given” blockage, regional logistics disruptions will ultimately push up consumer prices.

What Are the True Drivers of US CPI in 2024?

To accurately forecast how the data will move after the US CPI announcement, two core variables must be monitored.

The first is the US Election. Regardless of which party wins, candidates tend to oversell promises during campaigns. Combined with current international situations, the new government might externalize domestic conflicts, escalating geopolitical tensions, and further reversing globalization. The ultimate result is increased scarcity of goods, making prices difficult to decline smoothly.

The second is the Fed’s rate cut decision. CME data shows the market most heavily predicts a 6 basis point rate cut before the end of 2024. This expectation itself indicates that the market sees a declining trend in US CPI throughout the year. But the key question is whether this downward trend will be interrupted by the election and geopolitical conflicts.

In summary, we believe: CPI will bottom in Q1, rebound in Q2 (due to base effects and costs), and then decline again in H2. This trajectory will pressure US stocks because it suggests the Fed will not cut rates as aggressively as the market expects.

Final Investment Advice

Tracking the US CPI announcement schedule is not just about watching the numbers but understanding the underlying economic logic. The CPI YoY is released earliest and triggers the most market reaction; PCE YoY comes slightly later but is more scientific and the Fed’s decision basis. Both usually trend in the same direction with subtle differences, and these differences present trading opportunities.

In 2024, US CPI will not be as extreme as during the pandemic, but nor will it decline smoothly. The three forces—elections, geopolitics, and logistics—will jointly shape the year’s trajectory. Locking in the CPI announcement times in advance, doing thorough homework, is key to seizing opportunities amid volatility.