#美联储降息预期 Seeing Powell's decision to cut interest rates this time, my first reaction is: this is not just a matter of interest rates, but a significant turning point in the entire monetary power structure.

Over my twenty-plus years in the crypto space, I've seen many cycles, but scenes where central bank independence is openly questioned are indeed rare. Nick Timiraos's article explains it very clearly—the three paths to rate cuts next year, and in fact, the third one is the true game-changer: changing the composition of the Federal Reserve's meeting room. Behind this lies the Trump team's effort to redefine the boundaries of monetary power in a way we've never seen before.

Thinking back to after the 2008 financial crisis, we all believed that the Fed's independence had become an "institutional rule." Now it seems this "rule" might just be a product of a specific historical period. Trump isn't just aiming to replace the chair; he's rewriting the entire distribution of fiscal and monetary power—from personnel arrangements, changes in term premiums, to reforms of the balance sheet system. Every step points in the same direction: long-term interest rates, liquidity, and asset allocation are shifting from the Fed to the Treasury.

This reminds me of the basis trading scene. On the surface, it's a $4 billion ETF outflow, but in reality, it's a systemic liquidation of leveraged arbitrage positions. The market's greatest fear has never been the sell-off itself, but not knowing who is selling and why. Now we know—the fear isn't panic, but structure. The same logic applies on a macro level: seemingly chaotic policy signals are actually a necessary phase of loosening the old order and forming a new one.

Saylor and Tom Lee increasing their positions at this moment are, in a sense, betting on a deeper change: the certainty of liquidity improvement. In a fiscal-led era, the drive for expansion will be stronger and more persistent than in the past, even if short-term volatility increases.

The current question is: when will this new system truly stabilize? Historically, each transition of power reconstruction is full of illogical price fluctuations. In the coming months before next year, the market may appear particularly chaotic—but that precisely indicates we are experiencing a genuine systemic transformation. Will Bitcoin benefit from this? Certainly, but not now. It needs to wait until this reshaping of the monetary system is fully complete to find its place within the new framework.

The short-term bottom rebound is already brewing, but the real opportunity may require a little more patience.