#加密市场小幅回暖 The Christmas market is approaching, and Bitcoin's price targets for December have become the focus. Bitcoin has fluctuated within the range of 84,000 to 94,000 USD for a month, and currently hovers around 90,000 USD.

Bullish analysts like AlphaBTC and Captain Faibik expect a "Santa Claus rebound," believing the correction has ended, and the price could soon break out and surge to the 98,000 to 100,000 USD range.
Korinek_Trades, based on Elliott Wave Theory, predicts the price is expected to reach a new high of 150,000 USD. Ignas points out that the large-scale options expiration on December 26 could push the price toward 96,000 USD.
However, bearish voices cannot be ignored. Maksim Balashevich, founder of Santiment, believes that based on social media sentiment analysis, the market has not yet shown enough "panic" to confirm a bottom, and Bitcoin could still fall to $75,000. CryptoQuant analyst CryptoOnchain warns that due to $1.4 billion worth of BTC inflows on the Binance exchange, the price may retrace to the demand zone between $70,000 and $72,000. Analysts like Killa and Doctor Profit predict that after months of turbulence, the market could enter a new deep decline in the first quarter of 2026, targeting $60,000.
Fidelity's Jurrien Timmer believes the four-year cycle is not over, and the bear market could continue until 2026, with support levels between $65,000 and $75,000.
According to on-chain data, analyst Murphy points out that a large amount of chips has accumulated in the $80,000 to $90,000 range, while the $70,000 to $80,000 range is a liquidity vacuum that could serve as strong support.
The holiday atmosphere always brings some special "magic." Will the highly anticipated Santa rally arrive on time?
The "Santa rally" in the crypto market originates from the year-end effect of traditional stock markets: holiday optimism + institutional smoothing + liquidity scarcity allowing small funds to push prices higher. However, Bitcoin and other crypto assets are more volatile, and their performance heavily depends on the larger cycle of (bull and bear markets).
Based on historical data from the past 10-11 years, Bitcoin's average December gain is about 8.25%, with an average total market cap increase of 13.16%. Most years have positive returns, but not every year sees gains. In the past 11 years, during the week before Christmas (December 19-25), Bitcoin rose 8 times, with the largest increase of 13.19% in 2016. In the week after Christmas, it rose 6-9 times, but the overall market was stronger (with a 182% positive return).
In a bull market, the probability and magnitude of a Christmas rebound are higher; in bear markets or correction phases, sideways movement or slight declines are more common. The average size of the Christmas rebound is only 1-2%, far below the potential 9% for the entire December. Liquidity scarcity is a double-edged sword—it can lead to rapid surges but also cause flash crashes.
In the crypto world's Christmas, this often acts as an emotional magnifier: when optimistic, everyone calls for a bull market; when fearful, everyone calls for a bottom. But history shows that price surges are not a holiday bonus but a continuation of larger trends. This year, it seems Santa might be late or only bring small gifts—let's prioritize rationality and avoid chasing rallies blindly.
What do you think about this year's Christmas? Will it be a calm sideways movement or an unexpected rebound? Let's discuss your positions and predictions in the comments! Happy holidays, and good risk management is the best gift.