A key signal to watch for at the end of 2025 is that the offshore RMB against the US dollar has directly broken through 7.0, marking the first time since September 2024. This has significant implications for the 2026 exchange rate landscape.

The consensus among institutions is quite aligned: the Federal Reserve is highly likely to continue cutting interest rates next year, and a weakening dollar is almost a certainty. What does this directly mean? The pressure on USDT to RMB will gradually become evident. Additionally, a detail to note — the US interest rate cuts are more aggressive than those domestically, which will further narrow the US-China interest rate differential, and concerns about RMB depreciation are actually diminishing.

However, exchange rate trends are not isolated. The USDT premium performance is closely linked to the bullish and bearish cycles of the crypto market. If the market turns bullish next year, USDT may show a slight positive premium; conversely, if the bear market persists, a negative premium is likely to continue.

How will this play out in practice? The first half of the year is expected to see repeated tug-of-war around the 7.0 level, with clear battles between bulls and bears. In the second half, the RMB’s upward trend will gradually become apparent, and the USD/RMB exchange rate may approach the 6.6-6.8 range, which aligns with most institutions’ basic consensus on a moderate RMB appreciation.