#美联储降息政策 Seeing the results of this rate cut, I feel a bit more at ease. Three consecutive 25 basis point cuts, totaling 75 basis points this year—I'm familiar with this rhythm—it’s the same gradual easing seen after the 2008 financial crisis. But the key lies in what the dot plot reveals: only one rate cut in 2026 and 2027 each, which truly reflects the policy intent.

Honestly, the disagreements within the Federal Reserve are more noteworthy than the rate cuts themselves. Powell and others have already acknowledged that the "preemptive rate cuts" are coming to an end; next, it depends on whether the labor market continues to weaken. This reminds me of the 2015-2016 cycle, when there was similar repeated probing, which ultimately delayed any substantial action for a long time.

The market’s reaction to the crypto prices is quite interesting—initially soaring to 94,000, then immediately falling back to around 92,000. This reflects a reality the market is digesting: the marginal effects of easing policies are diminishing. Every past rate cut could boost asset prices, but that’s no longer the case.

Historically, what truly influences the long-term trend of the crypto market is never a single rate decision but the turning points in policy cycles. If this time truly enters a long-term pause, the next thing to watch is whether labor data can support the entire economy. Once employment continues to deteriorate, the market will usher in the next opportunity. For now, it’s about waiting, not chasing highs.