12.25 SOL Market Analysis

Structurally, SOL is still in a consolidation phase with a slight weakness, and no substantial trend reversal has occurred.
Multiple rebounds on the 4-hour timeframe have been met with resistance at the upper pressure zone and pushed back down, indicating persistent selling pressure in this area and a lack of strong bullish continuation.

Technical analysis of the moving average system is as follows: the 4H MA30 / MA60 are in a bearish alignment. The price has repeatedly attempted to rise to the upper band of the moving averages but was blocked, which is a typical rebound correction rather than a trend reversal.
MACD: The 4H MACD shows a slight bullish crossover sign, but volume cannot be amplified, and the red bars lack persistence, indicating a weak rebound signal that could turn into a death cross at any time.
RSI: During the rebound, RSI remains within the 55–60 range and has not entered the strong zone, suggesting that the upward momentum is relatively weak.

Volume: The rebound volume is insufficient, with obvious volume-price divergence. The main force is more inclined to release liquidity at high levels rather than actively pushing prices higher. Overall, SOL remains within a downward channel, and the current rebound is a technical retracement within the channel.

Trading strategy remains trend-following: avoid chasing longs and wait for the rebound to reach the 124–127 range to consider short positions in batches. This zone is a dense trading area of previous highs combined with moving average resonance pressure.
The first target is around 120; if broken, further retesting of the previous lows is possible.

Until the trend is broken, a rebound is an opportunity for bears to enter. Manage positions and pace carefully, and patiently wait for the market to give clear signals.