Tonight at 21:30, the US September Non-Farm Payrolls report, delayed by a full month, will be released. How significant is this data? To be honest, it almost determines whether the Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates in December — which directly affects the overall trend of the crypto market in the next two weeks.

**Why is this data particularly important?**

Let’s provide some background: this September data was supposed to be released last month but was postponed due to the government shutdown. This means market expectations for it have been building higher, and uncertainty has increased. Fed Chair Powell and his team have already signaled — "a rate cut in December is not a certainty," implying that tonight’s data will be a key factor in their decision-making.

The publicly available data itself is contradictory: 119,000 new jobs were added in September, far exceeding the market expectation of 51,000. That sounds good, but the unemployment rate jumped to 4.4%, the highest since October 2021. What is the truth behind this "double increase"? The labor market has experienced structural changes — about 500,000 people re-entered the job-seeking pool, creating pressure on the supply side, rather than a contraction of jobs themselves.

**How might the market react?**

Based on past market responses to non-farm data releases, there are two most probable scenarios. Stronger-than-expected data usually suppresses risk assets because it delays the Fed’s rate cut expectations; weaker-than-expected data often triggers risk aversion and a rebound in tech stocks. The crypto market tends to be more sensitive to such macroeconomic data — volatility could be more intense than in traditional stock markets.

Experienced traders typically adjust their positions before the data release rather than gamble on the market direction. In this cycle, it’s crucial to closely observe the Fed officials’ reactions after the data and the movement of the 10-year US Treasury yield — these two signals often preemptively reflect the market’s reassessment of the probability of a rate cut.