2025-12-25 11:00:34

#比特币流动性 Beware! Signs of a valuation turning point for LIT are emerging; what do the whale short positions imply?

Recently, I analyzed on-chain data and market trends and found that the bullish and bearish battles for LIT are becoming increasingly intense, with several details worth examining.

**What are the big players doing?**
A wallet address (0xdaa…) has deposited $2.6 million in Hyperliquid and immediately opened a 1x leveraged short position worth $1.256 million, with an average entry price around $3.53. The key point is that this whale is adding to the position. The liquidation price is set at $6.98, while the current market price is $3.47—based on this setup, it’s clear they are not optimistic about a rise and are betting on a decline. Such actions by large holders are surely backed by data.

**Market consensus is beginning to waver**
LIT’s current FDV (Fully Diluted Valuation) of $3.4 billion was quite high before official launch. The Polymarket prediction market is interesting—bets on whether the FDV will stay above $3 billion one day after listing have dropped from 62% to 55%, a 7-point decline. What does this indicate? Funds are voting with their feet, raising doubts about whether this high valuation can be sustained.

**The hidden minefield of airdrops**
Lighter previously transferred 250 million LIT tokens, accounting for a quarter of the total supply. If these tokens are distributed via airdrop, at the current price, each token could be worth roughly $72. If the airdrop occurs as scheduled on the 31st, short-term selling pressure could explode. Whales have already accumulated large short positions, and on-chain signals are very clear.

**My view**
The $3.4 billion valuation is clearly overextended before launch. Once the airdrop occurs, a reversal where “good news turns into bad news” is highly likely—retail arbitrage, institutions taking profits, and liquidity may not be able to absorb the shock. The probability of the price testing below $3 is not low in my opinion.

On the trading side, there’s no need to rush into longs. Wait until after the airdrop to see the turnover data. If whales continue to accumulate short positions, be cautious of liquidity risks. On-chain logic and data are always more valuable than emotions. I will keep an eye on this address and the token distribution progress and will update if there are new findings.

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LiquidationKing

· 4h ago

Whales' short position deployment this time is truly brilliant. The $3.4 billion valuation should have broken long ago. --- Airdrop lands and immediately dumps, retail investors are again getting chopped. --- On-chain data is right here, and some still dare to chase long on LIT? --- The liquidation price of 6.98 is clear as day to big players. We need to learn to read on-chain logic. --- The prediction market dropped from 62 to 55. These 7 points are just funds voting with their feet. --- Waiting for the airdrop on the 31st, the new high has an 80% chance of being the top, no escape. --- $72 per point? The FDV should be cut in half to be reasonable. --- What does it mean when big players add to their short positions? Don’t you have a clue, everyone? --- In this situation with LIT, I really can't see where it could still go up. --- Liquidity can't support it; if below $3, it can't run.

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BlockchainBard

· 4h ago

The whale's move this time is indeed aggressive. Shorted before the airdrop—it's clear whether they're timid or not.

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TokenToaster

· 4h ago

Whales' recent short positions are indeed aggressive. The airdrop expected at 72 dollars per point seems quite uncertain. --- Wait, dropping from 62% directly to 55%, these folks are really starting to panic. The market sentiment is quite evident. --- Liquidity absorption is truly a concern. I also agree that the probability below 3 dollars isn't low. Let's see how the airdrop on the 31st turns out. --- Large investors adding to short positions clearly indicate something. Setting the liquidation price so comfortably shows they’re not afraid at all. --- I’ve been saying that the 3.4 billion valuation is overextended. Those chasing the high will have to take the loss. --- On-chain data never lies. We need to keep tracking this address; it feels like the show isn’t over yet.

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notSatoshi1971

· 4h ago

This move by the big players is indeed quite bold. The 3.4 billion valuation is overextended, and the airdrop will collapse as soon as it lands.

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just_another_fish

· 4h ago

Whales adding to their short positions, this guy really doesn't have much confidence. --- If the 3.4 billion FDV really crashes down, liquidity might not hold up, gotta be cautious. --- When an airdrop turns from good news to bad news, it's an old story; retail investors are still getting cut. --- Wait, the liquidation price of that wallet address was 6.98, now it's 3.47. Such a large buffer zone? They are betting on things we can't see. --- I just want to know how much the 250 million LIT sell-off can push the price down, betting below $3. --- On-chain data speaks, but predicting a 7-point drop in the market doesn't mean much; it's just market sentiment fluctuating. --- The key is whether the airdrop on the 31st can proceed as scheduled. If it's delayed, that's another story. --- This big player’s move is just outrageous—using 1x leverage on a short position, not afraid of liquidity drying up?

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DisillusiionOracle

· 4h ago

Whales' short positions this time are no joke; they've already sniffed out the trend. --- A valuation of 3.4 billion, an astronomical figure, airdrops are bound to be cut in half. --- This guy votes with real gold and silver; I trust on-chain signals, not media hype. --- Retail investors are still dreaming of a surge after listing, but they've already piled up short positions; how ironic. --- Airdrops are about to be dumped; if liquidity can't catch it, you'll be caught in the crossfire. --- No rush to chase longs, that's correct; wait until the dump is over and then see the corpses. --- The 7% drop on Polymarket shows that the most honest money is in the foot traffic. --- 72 dollars per point; why do I feel this number is a bit outrageous? --- On-chain logic never lies; emotional manipulation happens way too often. --- If it really drops below 3 dollars, that would be too exciting.

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ImpermanentPhilosopher

· 4h ago

Whale's short position is indeed aggressive, with a $3.4 billion valuation overshooting ridiculously. --- Only after the airdrop lands do retail investors realize what it means when good news turns into bad news. --- Setting a liquidation price at 6.98, they’re really determined to push it down. --- $72 per point? This airdrop damage is quite significant. --- Don’t follow the trend to go long; analyzing the data is the real way. --- Such obvious on-chain signals—does anyone still dare to take the bait? That’s a bold move. --- The liquidity absorption is unsustainable; we’ll see the results next month. --- What’s the basis for this guy’s confidence in betting below $3? --- Polymarket dropped 7 points directly; the market is already a bit panicked. --- With whales stacking such big orders, I need to carefully watch how this address moves next.

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