Bitcoin might have found its intermediate-term bottom back in November. The real test comes down to one thing: can it close above the 10-week moving average? That's the key level. Once BTC breaks and holds above it, things get interesting—you'd likely see a bounce toward the 50-week MA sitting around 101,600. But here's the catch: if equities turn south in January, crypto usually follows suit, and we could be looking at fresh lows instead. So watch that 10-week close carefully—it's basically the dividing line between a potential recovery setup and another leg down.