Institutional Investors Mixed on Home Depot: RBC Capital Holds Sector Perform Rating

RBC Capital has reaffirmed its Sector Perform rating on Home Depot (NYSE: HD) as of November 19, 2025, signaling a balanced outlook amid shifting fund dynamics. The decision reflects a complex market picture where major institutions are adjusting their positions, even as analysts project significant upside potential.

Price Forecast Points to Notable Upside Potential

Analyst consensus suggests meaningful room for appreciation. As of mid-November 2025, the one-year average price target stands at $436.99 per share, indicating a 30.68% upside from the latest closing price of $334.41. Price estimates range between $323.20 and $521.85, reflecting divided opinions within the analyst community about Home Depot’s near-term trajectory.

Revenue projections paint a cautious picture, with forecasted annual revenue of 165,519MM representing a slight 0.40% decline. More notably, non-GAAP EPS is projected at 18.61, down 6.99% from previous estimates—a pullback that partly explains the measured sector-level recommendation despite the significant upside in share price.

Institutional Positions Show Active Reshuffling

A total of 5,504 funds and institutions currently hold positions in HD, marking a 1.34% increase in holders over the past quarter (up 73 owners). However, the picture is nuanced: while the number of institutional players grew, total shares owned decreased by 2.87% to 804,276K shares. Average portfolio weight across all funds stands at 0.65%, up 2.36% quarter-over-quarter.

The put/call ratio of 0.75 suggests underlying bullish sentiment despite the cautious analyst stance, indicating options traders view the stock favorably.

Major Index Funds Trim Allocations While Maintaining Core Holdings

Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund (VTSMX) remains the largest institutional holder with 31,984K shares (3.21% ownership), representing a 1.87% increase in share count. Yet the fund trimmed its HD allocation by 9.04% of portfolio weight in the most recent quarter—a pattern reflected across major passive managers.

Vanguard 500 Index Fund (VFINX) follows similarly with 28,212K shares (2.83% ownership), up 2.16% in absolute share count but down 9.16% in portfolio allocation weight. This suggests index funds are adding shares modestly while reducing HD’s relative importance in their portfolios.

Geode Capital Management holds 23,413K shares (2.35% stake), up 1.85% from prior quarter, though it slashed portfolio allocation by 45.53%—the sharpest reduction among major holders. Bank of America maintains 15,005K shares (1.51% ownership), with minimal changes in share count but a dramatic 73.22% cut in portfolio weight.

Charles Schwab Investment Management rounds out the top five with 14,358K shares (1.44% ownership), down 1.47% in holdings but 20.37% in allocation weight.

The Verdict: Cautious Optimism With Strategic Hedging

The institutional picture reveals a sophisticated bet: large funds are neither bullish enough to dramatically increase exposure nor bearish enough to exit. The 30.68% upside target suggests meaningful appreciation potential, yet RBC’s sector-level rating acknowledges headwinds in revenue growth and earnings estimates. The divergence between rising share prices and declining portfolio allocations among major holders signals professionals are taking profits on strength while maintaining baseline positions—a prudent stance in uncertain economic conditions.

For investors tracking Home Depot’s institutional moves, the key takeaway is clear: big money sees upside but isn’t rushing in, preferring to wait for better entry points or clearer catalysts to drive conviction.