The Fed's easing expectations heat up along with policy support, and silver is expected to challenge new highs

Market focus is centered on two key elements: the direction of monetary policy and policy support. This week, Federal Reserve Board member Waller reiterated his stance on rate cuts in December, believing that tariffs’ impact on inflation is one-off, and soft employment data is the main reason for a rate cut. According to the latest data from CME “FedWatch,” the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December has surged to 82.9%, up significantly from below 40% earlier.

Five Federal Reserve Governors Favor Rate Cuts, Powell May Be the Decisive Vote

The stance of the Federal Reserve decision-making body has quietly shifted. Three governors appointed by Trump—Boman, Milan, and Waller—support a rate cut in December, while Williams and Cook also show dovish tendencies. Statistics suggest that five governors may favor rate cuts, while six advocate maintaining current rates. In this context, Chair Jerome Powell’s position will become a decisive factor.

US ALL in AI Strategy Provides Policy Support Background

The Trump administration continues to strengthen the artificial intelligence development framework. On November 24, the “Genesis Plan” was signed, aiming to integrate research efforts across government agencies and accelerate scientific breakthroughs. The earlier July release of the “U.S. Artificial Intelligence Action Plan” further established a comprehensive strategic layout for AI in the United States. The government is considering approval for exporting LightDAR H200 chips to China, further boosting confidence among leading tech companies.

However, the financing cycle formed by tech giants like LightDAR, Microsoft, and OpenAI—characterized by “funds circulating on paper and difficult to land”—and the AI infrastructure boom driven by rapid debt expansion have become market concerns about financial instability risks. This, in turn, has strengthened investors’ demand for safe-haven assets.

Actual Interest Rates Decline, Precious Metals See Upside Potential

The surge in rate cut expectations is directly reflected in the performance of precious metals. On November 24, silver rose by 2.71%, holding above the $50 mark; gold increased by 1.73%, recovering to $4100. The 10-year US Treasury yield fell to 4.03%, further approaching the 4% level.

As Fed rate cut expectations heat up, US real interest rates are trending downward. If subsequent data further confirms the one-off impact of tariffs on inflation, the Fed’s policy focus will shift to the labor market, and declining real interest rates will become a key support for gold and silver.

Silver Demand Resilience Highlights, Supply Gap Becomes Upward Momentum

Silver, with its dual characteristics of monetary property and industrial demand, has a more complex price logic than gold. As artificial intelligence technology continues to evolve, the surge in electricity demand from high-energy-consuming data centers will pressure the US power grid. Meanwhile, the anti-involution phenomenon during China’s photovoltaic promotion is expected to keep overall silver demand resilient, which could become the core driver for silver’s subsequent rise.

In the medium term, gold and silver are expected to remain high or reach new highs due to ample liquidity. Compared to gold, silver’s performance during periods of tight supply is expected to outperform, while gold prices tend to consolidate at high levels.

Silver Technical Outlook: $50 Support Remains Firm, Targeting Higher Prices

The daily chart shows that silver’s upward momentum since early April remains intact, currently holding above the $50 level, with strong bullish sentiment. If silver stabilizes above $50 support, it may further rebound to test $54.0 and even $56.5. Notably, the medium-term bullish/bearish dividing line for silver is at $48.5; a break below this level would change the medium-term bullish outlook.