If you’re still treating Polymarket like a casino instead of picking the contracts that are almost guaranteed, your returns will never beat US Treasuries 🎰 and you’ll probably keep losing money.

Last year, I went through over 5,000 trades trying to find truly steady opportunities.📊 What I found were a bunch of contracts that looked absurd, even ridiculous—but some offered annualized returns above 5.5% with almost no risk.

Most people don’t even realize these patterns exist. But if you grab just one of them, you can earn consistent returns.

Here are 10 typical cases, showing how these “absurd contracts” can actually become low-risk arbitrage opportunities 👇

1️⃣ Will Jesus Christ return before 2025?
• Buy “NO” → ~5.5% annualized
• Logic: Metaphysical events won’t settle in reality
• Edge: Common sense

2️⃣ Will the US officially confirm aliens exist?
• Buy “NO” → ~6–7% annualized
• Logic: Public confirmation requires political consensus, not imagination
• Edge: Probability + political reality

3️⃣ Will the US experience a civil war?
• Buy “NO” → ~4–5% annualized
• Logic: Social division ≠ civil war
• Edge: Historical experience + social stability

4️⃣ Will US national debt fail to reach $39T?
• Buy “YES” → ~1–2% annualized
• Logic: Debt growth is predictable; simple math beats narratives
• Edge: Numbers > stories

5️⃣ Will the US default on its debt?
• Buy “NO” → ~4–5% annualized
• Logic: Modern institutions prevent default
• Edge: Structural stability

6️⃣ Will Trump leave office early?
• Buy “NO” → ~2–3% annualized
• Logic: Impeachment and political theater ≠ actually leaving office
• Edge: Contract rules + political reality

7️⃣ Will Elon Musk not be the richest person by 2026?
• Buy “NO” → ~9–10% annualized
• Logic: Multi-hundred-billion wealth gaps don’t vanish overnight
• Edge: Scale of wealth

8️⃣ Will Bitcoin replace SHA-256?
• Buy “NO” → ~4–5% annualized
• Logic: Core protocol upgrades are slow
• Edge: Technical reality + adoption friction

9️⃣ Will the EU dissolve before 2027?
• Buy “NO” → ~4–5% annualized
• Logic: Institutional collapse is slow; sudden breakdown is rare
• Edge: History + structural stability

🔟 Will Putin leave office before 2027?
• Buy “NO” → ~9–10% annualized
• Logic: Regime stability is underestimated
• Edge: Political reality + term limits

Polymarket has over 20,000 events. If you know how to pick the contracts with extreme probabilities, you can turn them into low-volatility income instead of just gambling.

Remember: you’re not betting on extreme events—you’re using common sense to earn steady returns.

#Polymarket #Crypto #PredictionMarkets