Will gold prices see a surge towards $5000 in 2026?

Gold prices in 2025 experienced dramatic developments, reaching record levels of $4,381 per ounce in mid-October. However, this surge was not surprising but resulted from the convergence of multiple economic and political factors. The question now is: will this bullish wave continue to break the $5,000 barrier as some analysts predict?

Three Forces Driving Gold Higher in 2026

1. Demand Not Only Maintained but Accelerated

In just the first half of 2025, global demand for gold (including investment) reached 2,455 tons, up 3% annually. The real striking figure is that the value of this demand jumped to $264 billion, a 45% increase – a clear sign that investors are not just waiting but buying aggressively.

Gold ETF funds (ETFs) attracted record inflows, with assets under management reaching $472 billion, and holdings exceeding 3,838 tons. This indicates we are near the previous all-time high, with room for further growth.

2. Central Banks Continue Buying

Global central banks added only 244 tons in Q1 2025, but this number conceals an even more important fact: now 44% of central banks hold gold reserves compared to 37% the previous year. The People’s Bank of China alone added 65 tons, and India and Turkey also continued their purchases.

It is expected that these purchases will persist throughout 2026, especially from emerging markets seeking to reduce their dependence on the US dollar.

3. The Supply Gap Widens

Here lies the magic. Mine production in Q1 2025 was only 856 tons, up 1% annually – a very small increase. Meanwhile, recycled gold declined by 1%, as jewelry owners prefer to hold onto their gold expecting further price increases.

The result? A widening gap between demand and supply. When something becomes scarce and demand is strong, prices rise – a simple but powerful law.

Monetary Policy: The Key Ally

The US Federal Reserve cut interest rates twice in 2025, and markets expect a third cut by December. BlackRock predicts that US interest rates will reach 3.4% by the end of 2026 – a significant decrease.

Lower interest rates mean lower real yields on bonds, thus reducing the opportunity cost of holding gold (an interest-free asset). The European Central Bank and Bank of Japan are moving in the same easing direction, weakening currencies and boosting the yellow metal’s appeal.

What Do Top Analysts Say About 2026?

Expectations are optimistic and notable:

• HSBC: $5,000 as a potential peak in the first half of 2026, with an average of $4,600
• Bank of America: also $5,000 as a maximum, with an average of $4,400
• Goldman Sachs: $4,900
• JPMorgan: $5,055 by mid-2026

The baseline range is between $4,200 and $4,800 as an expected average, with a real possibility of surpassing $5,000 in some ambitious scenarios.

Expected Threats and Corrections

But not everything is rosy. HSBC warned that the second half of 2026 could see a correction toward $4,200 if investors start taking profits. However, a sharp decline below $3,800 is unlikely unless a major economic shock occurs.

Goldman Sachs is concerned about a “price credibility test” – the ability of gold to stay above $4,800 amid weak industrial demand. But JPMorgan and Deutsche Bank see that gold has entered a new price zone that is difficult to break downward, thanks to a strategic shift in investor perception.

Technical Picture: What Does the Chart Say?

As of the close on November 21, 2025, gold closed at $4,065. It broke a strong upward channel but still holds the main trendline. The $4,000 level is a critical support – breaking below it could open the way toward $3,800. Conversely, surpassing $4,200 opens the path toward $4,400 and then $4,680.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is steady at 50 – neutral. The MACD remains positive, supporting continued upward momentum. Technical analysis indicates the market is in a consolidation phase before a new wave.

Summary: Will It Reach $5,000?

The pattern is clear. Strong demand, limited supply, favorable monetary policy, and ongoing central bank purchases all push prices higher. But profit-taking and corrections are expected.

It is likely that gold will stabilize around $4,600–$4,800 in 2026, with a real chance of surpassing $5,000 during some periods. However, sustained above this level will require continued geopolitical and financial pressures, declining US interest rates, and a weaker dollar.

Ultimately, gold is no longer just a speculative tool – it is a strategic asset in the portfolios of governments and serious investors. As long as that remains the case, the upward trend will continue.