Gold Price Predictions 2026.. Will the price of gold rise in the coming days towards $5000?

Will Gold Price Rise in 2026? Key Indicators

After breaking historical highs in 2025, investors’ main question is clear: will the upward trend continue in 2026? The reality is that the answer depends on specific factors. Gold prices experienced sharp jumps last year, surpassing $4,300 per ounce in October 2025, then retreating to around $4,000 in November. This movement reflects a delicate balance of multiple supporting factors.

Major financial institutions agree on a unified outlook: most forecasts suggest that gold could reach the $4,800 to $5,000 range during 2026. HSBC predicted that gold will push toward $5,000 per ounce in the first half of 2026 with an annual average of $4,600, while Bank of America raised its forecast to a similar level with a warning of short-term corrections. Goldman Sachs adjusted its estimate to $4,900, and JPMorgan indicated the possibility of gold reaching $5,055 by mid-2026.

Main Factors Driving Gold Prices Higher

Rising Investment and Institutional Demand

Statistics tell a clear story about gold demand. According to the World Gold Council, total gold demand in Q2 2025 was approximately 1,249 tons, up 3% annually, but the value increased by 45% to reach $132 billion. Gold ETFs (ETFs) recorded record inflows totaling $472 billion in assets under management, with holdings reaching 3,838 tons, up 6% from the previous quarter.

This approaches a historical peak of 3,929 tons, indicating that investors have not stopped buying but continue to increase their holdings. Bloomberg data showed that 28% of new investors in developed markets added gold to their portfolios for the first time and held onto it even during short correction periods, reinforcing price stability from the bottom.

Continued Central Bank Buying Campaigns

Central banks worldwide have not ceased purchasing gold. They added 244 tons in Q1 2025, a 24% increase over the five-year quarterly average. Data indicates that 44% of central banks now manage gold reserves, up from 37% in 2024.

China continued leading the buying spree, increasing reserves by over 65 tons in the first half of 2025, marking the 22nd consecutive month of continuous purchases. Turkey increased its reserves to over 600 tons. The World Gold Council forecasts that central bank purchases will remain the primary driver of demand through the end of 2026, especially in emerging markets.

Supply and Demand Gap

On the supply side, the picture is quite different. Mine production reached only 856 tons in Q1 2025, a 1% annual increase, which is insufficient to meet rising demand. Recycled gold decreased by 1%, as owners preferred to hold onto their jewelry expecting higher prices.

Mining costs rose to $1,470 per ounce in mid-2025, the highest in a decade. This means that any increase in production will be slow and costly, maintaining upward pressure on prices.

Monetary Policies and Economic Factors

Interest Rate Cuts and Weak Dollar

The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points in October 2025 to a range of 3.75-4.00%, the second cut since December 2024. Further reductions are expected if labor market strength wanes or economic growth slows. BlackRock estimates that the Fed could target an interest rate of 3.4% by the end of 2026.

This decline in rates reduces the opportunity cost of holding gold as a non-yielding asset. The dollar index fell 7.64% from its peak in early 2025 until the close on November 21, 2025. US 10-year bond yields dropped from 4.6% in Q1 to 4.07% in November. This combination strongly supports gold.

Inflation and Global Debt

The World Bank forecasted a 35% increase in gold prices in 2025, but some expectations may decline in 2026 as inflationary pressures ease. The IMF warned that global public debt exceeded 100% of GDP, raising concerns about fiscal sustainability.

Bloomberg Economics data showed that 42% of major hedge funds increased their gold positions during Q3 2025, benefiting from economic uncertainty.

Geopolitical Tensions and Uncertainty

External Crises Boost Safe-Haven Demand

Trade conflicts between the US and China, along with Middle East tensions, pushed investors toward gold as a safe haven. Reuters reported that geopolitical uncertainty in 2025 increased demand by 7% year-over-year.

As fears about Taiwan and energy supplies escalated, spot gold prices surged past $3,400 per ounce in July 2025, then continued rising to over $4,300 in mid-October. This behavior confirms that any new shock in 2026 could push prices to new record levels.

Gold Price Outlook in the Middle East Region

Egypt and the Gulf in the Future

The Central Bank of Egypt added one ton of gold in Q1 2025, and the Qatari Central Bank added 3 tons. Gold price forecasts in Egypt indicate a significant rise in 2026, potentially reaching around 522,580 EGP per ounce, an increase of 158.46% from current prices.

In Saudi Arabia, if the ambitious scenario of reaching $5,000 per ounce in 2026 materializes, it could translate to approximately 18,750 to 19,000 SAR per ounce (at an exchange rate of 3.75 to 3.80 SAR). In the UAE, the same forecast might give an estimate of about 18,375 to 19,000 AED per ounce.

These projections depend on stable exchange rates, continued global demand for gold, and no major economic upheavals.

Are There Risks Threatening the Rise?

Corrections May Be Part of the Journey

Despite optimism, HSBC warned that the upward momentum could weaken in the second half of 2026, with potential corrections toward $4,200 if investors take profits. However, a drop below $3,800 is unlikely unless a major economic shock occurs.

Goldman Sachs cautioned that sustained prices above $4,800 could test the “price credibility” of the market—a real test of gold’s ability to maintain high levels.

However, JPMorgan and Deutsche Bank analysts agree that gold has entered a new price zone that is difficult to break downward, thanks to a strategic shift in investor perception of it as a long-term asset rather than just a speculative tool.

Technical Analysis of Gold Price as 2026 Approaches

Gold closed on November 21, 2025, at $4,065.01 per ounce, after reaching a peak of $4,381.44 on October 20, 2025. The price broke its upward channel on the daily chart but still holds the main short- to medium-term uptrend line around $4,050.

The $4,000 level acts as a strong support and a key pivot. A clear daily close below this level could target $3,800 (50% Fibonacci retracement) before resuming the upward move.

On the upside, $4,200 represents the first strong resistance, and breaking it opens the way toward $4,400 and then $4,680. The RSI remains at 50, indicating neutrality and a balance between buying and selling. The MACD line stays above zero, confirming the overall bullish trend.

The technical outlook suggests continued sideways to upward trading within a range of $4,000 to $4,220 in the near term, maintaining a positive outlook as long as the price stays above the main trendline.

Summary: Will Gold Price Rise in the Coming Days?

Despite short-term volatility, the answer is yes, and indicators point to continued growth. Gold price forecasts in 2026 generally range between $4,800 and $5,000 as a potential peak, with an average between $4,200 and $4,800. The supporting factors are strong: rising investment demand, ongoing central bank purchases, supply-demand gap, accommodative monetary policies, and geopolitical tensions.

If real yields continue to decline and the dollar remains weak, gold is poised to hit new all-time highs. Conversely, if inflation subsides and market confidence returns, the metal may enter a long-term stabilization phase. The real risk lies in sudden profit-taking by investors, which could cause short-term corrections, but the overall picture remains positive for gold in 2026.