PLN vs EUR: The Real Outlook for the Polish Zloty in 2025-2026

Regarding the exchange rate trends of the Polish Zloty (PLN) and the Euro, there are two prevailing voices in the market. One is the pessimists, who are concerned about geopolitical risks; the other is the rationalists, who look at the data and let it speak. If you’re considering trading opportunities in the EUR-PLN currency pair, it’s worth first understanding the current euro zloty kurs heute and the economic logic behind it.

What is the current EUR-PLN exchange rate?

As of early October 2025, the euro zloty kurs heute is quoted at 1 euro to 4.27 zloty. This price appears stable, but there’s an interesting story behind the chart. Since 1998, except during the two financial crises in 2001 and 2008, the EUR-PLN exchange rate has generally fluctuated around 4.

Interestingly, although the euro appreciated significantly against the zloty at the start of the Ukraine war, this trend has reversed over the past three years. The euro has been weakening continuously. Why is that? What gives the Polish currency its strength?

Six key economic indicators influencing PLN movement

1. Price levels and inflation expectations

Poland’s inflation rate in 2024 is 3.7%, which is moderate. The European Commission forecasts Poland’s inflation will fall to 3.6% in 2025 and further down to 2.8% in 2026. In comparison, the Eurozone’s inflation in 2024 is only 2.4%, with the European Central Bank estimating it will drop to 2.1% by the end of 2025 and even lower to 1.7% in 2026.

This means that although inflation is decreasing in both regions, the Eurozone’s price stability is noticeably stronger. For currency strength, low inflation is usually a plus.

2. Interest rate differential — PLN’s core advantage

The Polish central bank’s current benchmark interest rate is 4.75%, significantly higher than the European Central Bank’s 2.0%. This 2.75 percentage point interest spread is quite attractive.

Generally, higher interest rates attract international capital inflows, which can strengthen the domestic currency. If Poland can maintain relatively high interest rates, the zloty will have strong support. However, if inflation continues to decline, Poland’s central bank may start cutting rates in 2026, which would weaken this advantage.

3. Sovereign debt pressure cannot be ignored

As of Q2 2025, Poland’s public debt exceeds €416 billion, a 3.3% increase from the previous quarter. Rising debt levels are a warning sign, as foreign investors are usually reluctant to invest in highly indebted countries. Nonetheless, Poland’s debt-to-GDP ratio remains within manageable limits.

4. Political stability: signs of improvement

The new government that took office in December 2023 faces many challenges, including improving judicial independence, promoting energy transition, and addressing aging demographics. Polls show broad public support for Prime Minister Tusk’s coalition.

In the Eurozone, the 2024 European Parliament elections saw gains for Eurosceptic and right-wing parties, but pro-EU centrist parties still hold the majority. This stability is favorable for the euro.

5. Economic growth and employment — PLN’s strengths

According to the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, Poland’s GDP growth in 2025 and 2026 is projected at 3.5%. Unemployment is only 3.1%, well below the Eurozone’s 6.2%.

In contrast, the Eurozone’s economic growth remains weak, with forecasts of 1.2% in 2025 and only 1% in 2026. Uncertainty surrounding the new US tariffs further dampens European investor confidence.

This is the strongest argument supporting PLN appreciation.

6. The lasting impact of the Ukraine war

Geopolitical tensions exert pressure across Europe. Countries are increasing military spending, which stimulates the economy but also burdens public finances.

As Ukraine’s immediate neighbor, Poland bears greater pressure. Millions of Ukrainian refugees have flooded in, and although their employment rate reaches 70% (impressive), the long-term support costs remain heavy.

How will EUR-PLN move in 2025?

Considering the above six factors, analysts’ opinions vary:

• Bearish: Expect the exchange rate to fall to 4.20 EUR/PLN
• Bullish: Expect the exchange rate to rise to 4.44 EUR/PLN
• Neutral: The first-tier banks forecast around 4.30 EUR/PLN in 2026

The key is that these factors often offset each other. Poland’s high interest rates, strong growth, and low unemployment support PLN; meanwhile, the Eurozone’s low inflation and relative stability support the euro. Both face risks from the Ukraine war.

The result is: the most likely scenario for EUR-PLN in 2025-2026 is range-bound oscillation, rather than a one-way trend.

What should ordinary traders do?

If you are optimistic about the long-term prospects of the zloty, you can go long when EUR-PLN dips low, then take profits on rebounds, or hold medium-term positions. Since daily fluctuations are modest, EUR-PLN offers a relatively stable trading environment.

For carry traders, the 2.75% interest spread is also worth noting.

Most importantly, whatever strategy you choose, make sure it aligns with your risk tolerance.

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What factors influence EUR-PLN exchange rate?
A: Inflation, interest rates, sovereign debt levels, political stability, GDP growth, and geopolitical risks are the six core factors.

Q: How to invest in EUR-PLN?
A: You can trade via CFDs (contracts for difference) long or short, or directly exchange foreign currency. CFDs carry higher risk, so proceed with caution.

Q: What is the outlook for Poland’s economy and politics?
A: In 2025, Poland’s GDP growth is expected at 3.5%, with unemployment at only 3.1%, significantly better than the Eurozone. The new government enjoys broad support. Inflation is declining but still above Eurozone levels, and the central bank may cut rates in 2026. Rising debt is a concern but remains manageable.

Conclusion

Pessimistic forecasts for my Polish neighbors are contradicted by the data. The zloty has performed steadily in recent months, supported by high interest rates, robust economic growth, and low unemployment. However, high inflation, rising debt, and geopolitical risks cannot be ignored.

Therefore, the future of euro zloty kurs heute depends on how these factors develop. As traders, the wisest approach is to look for opportunities amid volatility rather than betting heavily on a single direction. EUR-PLN may not make you rich overnight, but its relative stability and interest rate advantage make it a currency pair worth watching.