Silver spot crisis imminent: After $75, can it advance further to $100?

Since the beginning of 2025, the precious metals market has sparked a rare surge. Silver prices soared to a historic high of $75.15/oz, with gold also climbing closely behind to $4531/oz. But what’s truly astonishing is that silver’s rally far exceeded expectations—up 158% since the start of the year, far surpassing gold’s 72% increase. Behind this gap lies an ongoing “physical squeeze.”

Supply Chain Collapse, Silver Faces Extreme Shortage

Why is silver’s rally so fierce? The key lies in the crisis on the supply side. Investors are generally worried about potential tariff policies, leading to a large-scale transfer of silver inventories to the United States. This move directly impacts spot reserves at exchanges worldwide, triggering strong short squeeze expectations and extreme speculative sentiment.

The situation in the London silver market is particularly severe. Many investors are abandoning paper contracts to rush into physical silver, causing market liquidity to deteriorate sharply. The critical indicator measuring this crisis—the “1-year silver swap rate versus US benchmark interest rate negative spread”—has fallen to -7.18%, signaling that spot supply is extremely tight.

Senior Dutch trading expert Karel Mercx bluntly states: “As long as this spread remains deeply negative, upward pressure on silver prices cannot truly ease.” This suggests that the current rally may just be beginning.

Policy Expectations and Currency Pressure Resonance

Beyond the supply crisis, macro factors are also strongly driving silver higher. The Fed’s rate cut expectations, combined with escalating global geopolitical tensions, are collectively boosting safe-haven demand.

American economist Peter Schiff points out that this silver surge is essentially a market response to currency devaluation risks and supply-demand imbalances. He believes that reaching $100/oz in 2026 is “a quite realistic target.” If turmoil in the currency markets intensifies further, breaking through this level will become much more likely.

Research teams at France’s BNP Paribas have also made similar predictions: silver is expected to reach $100/oz by the end of 2026.

Is $200 a Dream?

More aggressive forecasts come from Jim Rickards, author of Currency Wars. He states that 2026 will see a new explosive cycle for gold and silver. In a compelling outlook, Rickards suggests: if gold breaks $10,000/oz by the end of 2026, silver could reach $200/oz.

While this prediction sounds bold, considering the current liquidity crisis and severe supply shortages, it’s not entirely unbelievable. Looking at the 20-year history of silver’s price chart, markets tend to overshoot during extreme panic.

Right now, the market is proving an old investment adage: when physical supply is extremely scarce, paper prices will inevitably be driven higher. The journey from $75 to $100 for silver may be closer than we think.