28K level regained! The three major institutional investors are actively trading, with a daily net buy of over 19.1 billion, revealing a major capital shift behind the scenes.

Taiwan stocks today surged to recover 28K and stabilized at 28,303.78 points (up 1.15%). The three major institutional investors’ trading signals exploded—total net buying of NT$19.117 billion in a single day, hitting a recent high, with trading volume also expanding to NT$424.744 billion. This is not just a percentage increase but reflects a major rotation of global funds amid the Fed’s rate cut expectations.

Leading Foreign Investors, Followed by Fund Managers: Interpretation of the Three Major Institutional Trading Activities

According to real-time data from the Taiwan Stock Exchange, foreign investors bought NT$14.088 billion today, maintaining a four-day buying streak, with a total of NT$36.8 billion entering this week. Fund managers bought NT$1.029 billion, shifting into financial stocks for hedging. Proprietary traders bought NT$4 billion, focusing on memory and PCB concepts. The eight major state-owned banks sold NT$2 billion in small amounts, indicating a consensus among bulls has formed.

Key points of foreign trading activity: TSMC was sold off by 10,500 shares, Hon Hai by 5,200 shares, and Nanya Technology by 2,500 shares, with large-cap stocks becoming the main area of capital concentration. Fund managers’ trades focused on high-dividend financial stocks like Fubon Financial and Taishin Financial, both yielding over 5%, reflecting institutional funds shifting from high-valuation tech stocks to more stable, dividend-yielding assets.

Massive Capital Migration in Asia: Chain Reaction Triggered by Weakening US Dollar

The US dollar index fell to 102.5. High-valuation US tech stocks lost attractiveness, leading to over $15 billion in net foreign inflows into Asia this week. The Nikkei 225 rose 1.2% to 39,800 points, Korea’s KOSPI up 0.8% to 2,650 points, and India’s Nifty 50 up 0.9% to 24,200 points. The recent trading activity in Taiwan is not an isolated event but a reflection of the overall Asian market absorbing global capital.

India and Vietnam each attracted $2 billion, becoming the fastest-growing emerging markets. Japanese bank stocks rose 2.5%, indicating funds are shifting from growth stocks to value and high-dividend stocks. OECD forecasts that Asian capital inflows will reach $50 billion by 2025. As the largest electronics and financial hub in Asia, Taiwan stands to benefit most.

Sector Rotation Accelerates: Semiconductor, Glass, and PCB Stocks Hit Limit Up

Within Taiwan stocks, sector rotation is more evident. The semiconductor index surged 2.31%, with Wanghong, Winbond, VSE, Siliconware, and Huadong hitting the daily limit up. The glass sector led with a 4.22% increase, with Taiwan Glass up 4.8% to NT$38.2 and Fuhong Technology up 7.73%. PCB stocks continued their hot streak, with Xinxing rising 4.8%. Nanya Technology increased 6.86% to NT$163.5, reflecting a 15% rise in DRAM and NAND prices and strong inventory replenishment demand.

Behind this limit-up wave are the combined effects of DRAM replenishment, full PCB order books, and consumer sector recovery. However, the Taiwan Stock Exchange also highlighted 15 stocks to watch, with a high cancellation rate of 30-50%, including industry leaders like Nanya Technology, Winbond, Xinxing, and Taiwan Glass, signaling short-term speculative risks.

Large-cap Stocks Support the Market, Financial Stocks Rise Alongside: Year-End Portfolio Strategy Initiated

TSMC rose 2.4% to NT$1,495 (up NT$35), contributing over 200 points to the index; Hon Hai and MediaTek increased 0.43% and 1.05%, respectively, forming a protective pattern among the big caps. Financial stocks rose 0.28%, with Fubon Financial and Taishin Financial up over 2%, benefiting from the New Taiwan dollar appreciating to NT$31.25, reducing currency exchange costs.

Institutions predict the year-end portfolio rally will continue through December, with historical data showing an average December gain of 4-6%, making the 28,500-point level achievable. However, Moore Investment Consulting analyst Hsieh Wen-en warns that year-end portfolio chasing may lead to increased retail investor risk-taking, similar to the August 2024 Taiwan index futures limit-down event. He recommends reducing positions on rallies and reallocating to fundamentally stable financial and large-cap stocks.

Risk Warning: RSI Rises to 68, Internal Structural Cracks Appear

Fubon Securities Chairman Chen Yiguang pointed out that Taiwan stocks’ RSI has risen to 68, indicating an overbought zone, with support at 28,000 points and resistance at 28,500 points. If the Fed meeting’s data turns hot (core PCE exceeds expectations), profit-taking could be triggered. The high cancellation rate of stocks reflects dominant control and short squeeze risks, increasing short-term volatility.

Investors should closely monitor tonight’s US PCE data and the Fed’s decision in the coming days, balancing optimism and caution. Set stop-losses within 5%, diversify holdings to avoid individual stock risks. This rebound in Taiwan stocks is not only an extension of the Fed effect but also reflects Asia’s strategic position in the global capital rotation.