What's Next for Global Markets in 2026? Here's What Major Institutions Are Forecasting

After 2025’s volatile ride across commodities, crypto, and equities, the investment world is already positioning for 2026. Let’s break down the key market outlooks from leading institutions.

Precious Metals: Gold and Silver Poised for Further Gains

Gold’s Bull Run Continues

Gold had a stellar 2025, surging 60% — its best year since 1979. The World Gold Council expects this momentum to carry into 2026. With anticipated Fed rate cuts, a softer U.S. dollar, and persistent geopolitical tensions in the cards, gold could appreciate another 5%–15%. In more aggressive easing scenarios, gains could stretch to 15%–30%.

Wall Street remains constructively positioned. Goldman Sachs forecasts gold hitting USD 4,900 per ounce by end-2026, riding on continued central bank accumulation and ETF flows. Bank of America paints an even more bullish picture, projecting USD 5,000/oz as U.S. fiscal deficits and mounting debt keep supporting the precious metal. Major investment banks cluster their targets between USD 4,500–5,000/oz.

Silver: The Overlooked Outperformer

Silver’s 2025 rally actually outpaced gold, driven by structural supply constraints and industrial demand strength. The Silver Institute warns of a widening supply-demand imbalance that should persist through 2026, providing persistent tailwinds for prices.

UBS upgraded its 2026 silver price target to USD 58–60/oz, with potential upside toward USD 65/oz. Bank of America echoes this bullish view, also targeting USD 65/oz for 2026.

Cryptocurrency: Bitcoin and Ethereum Chart Different Paths

Bitcoin at a Crossroads

Bitcoin prices hit historical peaks in 2025 before retreating, ending the year relatively flat. Looking ahead, institutions are divided on the crypto’s trajectory.

Standard Chartered revised its Bitcoin target to USD 150,000 (down from USD 200,000), citing diminishing government crypto treasury purchases. Bernstein projects a similar USD 150,000 for 2026, though it expects the rally to accelerate further to USD 200,000 in 2027. Interestingly, Bernstein argues Bitcoin has broken its traditional four-year cycle and is entering an extended bull phase.

Morgan Stanley takes the opposing view, cautioning that the four-year cycle remains intact and the bull market is approaching maturity. Current spot price data shows Bitcoin trading around $93.73K with +0.67% daily movement.

Ethereum: Tokenization Story Could Be the Game-Changer

Ethereum’s 2025 was choppier than Bitcoin’s, also finishing near flat. However, institutional sentiment for ETH in 2026 is decidedly optimistic.

JPMorgan highlights massive tokenization potential built on Ethereum’s infrastructure, which could unlock trillions in value. Tom Lee, Chairman of BitMain, is especially bullish, projecting Ethereum at USD 20,000 in 2026. He contends the asset bottomed in 2025 and is primed for a substantial rally. Current trading shows ETH at $3.28K, up +4.22% in 24 hours.

U.S. Equities: AI Spending Keeps the Momentum Going

The Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 finished 2025 strong—up 22% and 18%, respectively. Most institutions expect this outperformance to continue in 2026, underpinned by relentless AI-related capital expenditure.

JPMorgan points out that hyperscale data center operators (Amazon, Google, Microsoft, Meta) will maintain elevated capex cycles for years, with cumulative spending potentially reaching hundreds of billions by 2026. This arms race should support chip and infrastructure stocks like NVIDIA, AMD, and Broadcom.

Analyst targets for 2026 are constructive: JPMorgan foresees potential S&P 500 upside toward 7,500, while Deutsche Bank has sketched scenarios approaching 8,000 by year-end, assuming sustained earnings growth and AI-fueled investment. Based on these S&P 500 projections, the Nasdaq 100 could exceed 27,000 points in 2026.

Foreign Exchange: Dollar Weakness and Yen Carry Trades in Focus

EUR/USD: One-Way Street Higher?

EUR/USD delivered a stellar 13% gain in 2025—its largest annual move in nearly eight years—as the dollar weakened. For 2026, the consensus remains constructive.

JPMorgan and Nomura forecast EUR/USD reaching 1.20 by year-end. Bank of America is more aggressive, targeting 1.22. However, Morgan Stanley urges caution: it projects an initial surge to 1.23 in H1 2026, followed by a pullback to 1.16 in H2 as U.S. economic strength reasserts itself.

USD/JPY: Divergent Views on Yen Direction

USD/JPY finished 2025 roughly flat (down ~1% overall), and 2026 outlooks are sharply divided. When converting 150,000 yen to USD at current levels, the exchange rate sensitivity becomes evident.

JPMorgan is bullish, forecasting USD/JPY at 164 by year-end, arguing that BOJ rate hike expectations are already priced in and Japanese fiscal expansion could weigh on the yen. Nomura takes the bearish stance, warning that narrowing U.S.-Japan rate differentials will reduce yen carry trade appeal. If U.S. data weakens, unwinding of these positions could trigger rapid yen appreciation, potentially pushing USD/JPY to 140.

Crude Oil: Oversupply Risks Loom

Oil prices tumbled nearly 20% in 2025 as OPEC+ boosted output and U.S. production surged. Looking into 2026, downside risks are skewed toward sustained oversupply.

Goldman Sachs paints a bearish scenario with WTI averaging around USD 52/barrel and Brent near USD 56/barrel. JPMorgan similarly flags downside risks, projecting WTI averages near USD 54 and Brent around USD 58, contingent on persistent supply gluts dampening demand growth.

The Bottom Line

2026 is shaping up as a year of divergent paths. Precious metals and cryptocurrencies look supported by macro tailwinds, equities could extend their AI-driven rally, while energy faces headwinds from oversupply. Foreign exchange volatility hinges on central bank policy divergence, particularly between the Fed and its global peers.