2026 Market Outlook: Will Precious Metals, Crypto, and Major Currencies Reshape Global Trading?

After the market turbulence of 2025, the year ahead brings pivotal questions for investors across asset classes. Let’s examine how leading financial institutions are positioning their forecasts for 2026.

Precious Metals: Gold and Silver Rally Continues

Gold’s remarkable run shows no signs of stopping. In 2025, the precious metal surged 60% — its largest annual gain since 1979 — fueled by Fed rate cuts, persistent central bank accumulation, and geopolitical uncertainty. The World Gold Council projects gold could advance another 5%–15% in 2026, with upside potential reaching 15%–30% if the Fed pursues aggressive easing amid economic slowdown.

Major investment banks demonstrate bullish consensus. Goldman Sachs targets USD 4,900/oz, while Bank of America forecasts USD 5,000/oz by year-end 2026, citing expansive U.S. fiscal deficits and mounting debt as structural tailwinds. Both institutions expect sustained central bank buying and ETF inflows to underpin the rally.

Silver outpaced gold in 2025, and the momentum appears sustainable. Structural supply deficits — driven by industrial demand recovery and slowing supply growth — could tighten further in 2026. UBS raised its silver target to USD 58–60/oz, with upside to USD 65/oz, while Bank of America also projects USD 65/oz, making silver one of the most compelling commodities for the year ahead.

Cryptocurrency Markets: Bitcoin and Ethereum at an Inflection Point

Bitcoin’s 2026 trajectory remains contested among major institutions. Standard Chartered revised its year-end target downward to USD 150,000 from USD 200,000, anticipating reduced treasury firm purchases. However, Bernstein offers a more constructive view, projecting USD 150,000 in 2026 and USD 200,000 in 2027, arguing that Bitcoin has broken its traditional four-year cycle and entered an elongated bull phase. Morgan Stanley counters this narrative, warning that the four-year pattern persists and the bull market approaches exhaustion.

Ethereum presents a different narrative. Despite trading nearly flat in 2025, institutions highlight enormous potential in tokenization waves that will depend heavily on Ethereum’s infrastructure. Tom Lee, Chairman of BitMain, forecasts ETH to reach USD 20,000 in 2026, asserting that the 2025 bottom now positions Ethereum for a significant advance. JPMorgan emphasizes tokenization’s transformative potential as a major catalyst for the broader crypto cycle.

Current pricing shows BTC at $93.66K (down 0.29% in 24 hours) and ETH at $3.27K (up 2.55%), suggesting volatility remains a defining characteristic as traders digest conflicting institutional narratives.

Equity Markets: Tech Dominance Sustained by AI Investment

The Nasdaq 100 emerged as 2025’s outperformer, gaining 22% versus the S&P 500’s 18% return. This streak marks the index’s third consecutive year of outperformance, and momentum appears likely to persist into 2026.

The catalyst remains clear: artificial intelligence infrastructure investment. JPMorgan highlights that hyperscale data centre operators—Amazon, Google, Microsoft, and Meta—are expected to sustain elevated capital expenditure, with cumulative deployment potentially reaching hundreds of billions of dollars by 2026. This spending cycle should continue supporting Nasdaq 100 constituents including NVIDIA, AMD, and Broadcom.

Price targets reflect optimism. JPMorgan outlines upside scenarios toward 7,500 on the S&P 500, while Deutsche Bank presents more constructive scenarios pointing to 8,000 by year-end 2026. Extrapolating from these S&P 500 targets, analysts suggest the Nasdaq 100 could surpass 27,000 points in 2026, contingent on sustained earnings growth and AI-driven capital allocation.

Currency Markets: Dollar Weakness and Divergent Monetary Paths

EUR/USD climbed 13% in 2025—its strongest year in eight years—and institutional forecasts suggest further upside. Divergent monetary policy expectations provide the foundation: U.S. rate cuts versus European Central Bank steadiness. JPMorgan and Nomura project EUR/USD reaching 1.20 by year-end, while Bank of America targets 1.22. However, Morgan Stanley cautions that U.S. economic outperformance could trigger a reversal in H2 2026, with EUR/USD potentially rising to 1.23 before retreating to 1.16.

USD/JPY presents one of 2026’s most debated forecasts. After declining roughly 1% in 2025, the pair faces sharply divergent outlooks. JPMorgan and Barclays argue that Bank of Japan rate hike expectations are already priced in, supporting a rise toward 164 USD/JPY by year-end. Nomura, however, contends that narrowing interest rate differentials will erode yen carry trade appeal. If U.S. macro indicators weaken, unwinding of carry positions could trigger yen appreciation, pushing USD/JPY toward 140. For context, currency traders also monitor broader dollar strength through metrics like 164 CAD to USD conversions, reflecting the dollar’s pivotal role in cross-asset valuations.

Energy Markets: Oil Faces Downside Risks

Crude oil pressures persist into 2026 despite 2025’s near-20% decline. OPEC+ output restoration and rising U.S. production have shifted the supply-demand balance toward oversupply risks, particularly if global demand growth moderates.

Goldman Sachs outlines a bearish scenario with WTI averaging USD 52/barrel and Brent near USD 56/barrel in 2026. JPMorgan similarly highlights downside exposure, projecting WTI near USD 54/barrel and Brent around USD 58/barrel amid sustained supply surpluses. These forecasts suggest limited upside catalysts unless geopolitical disruptions emerge.

The Interconnected 2026: Monetary Policy and Dollar Dynamics

The thread connecting all these forecasts is clear: U.S. monetary policy trajectory and dollar strength. A weaker dollar supports gold, silver, and cryptocurrency valuations while weakening commodities priced in dollars. Conversely, a stronger U.S. economy could reinvigorate the dollar, potentially capping precious metals gains and pressuring international equities. Leading institutions agree that 2026 will test these balances, making currency movements and Fed decisions the year’s defining variables.