Miners on the run: why Bitcoin network capitulation remains tense near $93,000

Bitcoin’s recovery to the US$ 93.39K range this week did not eliminate the structural pressures that have been plaguing miners since December. Data from VanEck indicate a 4% drop in the hash rate—a contraction the most severe since the first half of 2024—while the asset oscillates under technical tension at critical resistance levels.

Meanwhile, the debate in the crypto market expands to alternative tokens. Cryptocurrencies associated with public figures, such as Elon Musk’s coin, capture investors’ attention seeking diversification. But the focus remains on Bitcoin and its health status on the network.

The miner crisis: cascading shutdowns and strategic energy reallocation

The critical scenario emerged in China, where approximately 400,000 machines were shut down in Xinjiang province in just 24 hours. The decision is tied to the reallocation of energy infrastructure to data centers specialized in artificial intelligence, a sector offering higher returns than traditional mining.

Matthew Sigel and Patrick Bush estimate a permanent loss of up to 10% of the global hash capacity. This forced migration is not merely tactical: it redefines geopolitics and the efficiency of the Bitcoin network.

For the Bitmain S19 XP equipment, the breakeven in electricity costs has dropped dramatically from US$ 0.12 to US$ 0.077 per kWh in twelve months—a 36% reduction. Operators unable to keep pace with this cost compression face immediate operational infeasibility.

Institutional liquidity and short positions: the weight of hedge bets

Large institutional investors have moved to hedge risks. Aggregate short positions in Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana reached US$ 250 million, forming a defensive strategy rather than an aggressive market bet. The move reflects tactical skepticism about the sustainability of current levels.

The reduced depth of order books amplifies the impact of these positions. With many operators reducing exposure near year-end to preserve gains, global liquidity has contracted significantly. This seasonal environment increases the likelihood of abrupt movements even without new catalysts.

Technical outlook: bullish divergences versus persistent resistance

The four-hour chart continues to show recurring rejections at the 200-period simple moving average, which acts as a dynamic resistance and delineates the medium-term control zone. As long as the price remains below this barrier, the probability of lateral continuation or lower support tests remains high.

However, momentum indicators are beginning to signal possible weakening. On the three-day chart, the (RSI) marks higher lows while the price forms lower lows—classic bullish divergence. Similar setups preceded significant moves in previous cycles, suggesting selling pressure may be entering exhaustion.

The 30-day realized volatility has exceeded 45%, a level not recorded since April 2025. This extreme oscillation forces less efficient operators to liquidate positions to avoid further losses.

Disconnection from gold and relative value compression

The historical pattern of positive correlation between Bitcoin and precious metals has been broken. While gold and silver reach new all-time highs amid global macroeconomic uncertainties, Bitcoin diverges from this defensive capital flow. The BTC/XAU ratio indicates a relative loss of value for the crypto asset, suggesting a possible developing technical compression.

State support and the global reorganization of mining

Paradoxically, miner capitulation is not universal. VanEck documents that at least 13 countries are already participating in Bitcoin mining with some degree of state support, pursuing goals of energy or monetary sovereignty. This dynamic tends to concentrate activity among operators with access to cheap energy and efficient infrastructure, raising the sector’s entry barrier.

Historically, drops in the hash rate have been followed by positive Bitcoin returns in 65% of cases after 90 days. During contraction periods of 90 days, the average return over six months reached 72%, suggesting miner capitulation often coincides with the exhaustion of structural selling pressure.

Perspective: when liquidity returns and what the next trigger is

QCP Capital emphasizes that liquidity is likely to remain reduced during the Christmas week, amplifying both continuation moves and quick reactions to economic data. The market now awaits a more robust catalyst: significant influx of buying capital, a breakout of the US$ 90,000 resistance with high volume, or confirmation that miner capitulation indeed marks the end of structural selling pressure.

Next week will be critical. Bitcoin oscillates between prolonged consolidation or a more definitive directional move—both possible scenarios in an environment of high volatility and reduced liquidity.