BNB technical collapse signal... Market chooses 'downtrend' as RSI indicator weakens

As of Tuesday, BNB has fallen below the $855 level, entering an intensified downtrend phase. In particular, recent patterns over the past few days indicate that this is not merely a ‘correction,’ but signals of a structural weakening of market sentiment are being detected everywhere.

On-Chain and Derivative Data Simultaneously Signal ‘Risk’ Alerts

First, the supply and demand dynamics in the derivatives market have reversed. Looking at the rising trend of the Futures Average Order Size(Futures Average Order Size), institutional demand is shrinking while trading activity centered around retail traders is increasing. This is interpreted as a sign of increased price volatility, and it also means that support from large players is weakening.

More concerning is the Futures Taker CVD(Cumulative Delta Volume) indicator. Currently, BNB is in a phase where market-price sell executions continue to outnumber buy executions. This indicates that buy-side efforts aiming for a rebound are also being pushed back, increasing the likelihood of a short-term bearish acceleration.

Funding Rate Turns Negative… ‘Short Squeeze’ Warning Intensifies

What stands out even more is that the funding rate(OI-Weighted Funding Rate) has turned negative. Since Monday, this change has resulted in a -0.006% reading as of Tuesday, meaning short position holders are paying funding to long positions. In other words, the forces betting on a decline are becoming relatively stronger.

RSI and MACD Indicators Weakening… Confirming Technical Bearishness

The daily RSI indicator is currently at 39 and continues to decline below the neutral 50( level. This clearly indicates that the market is not just undergoing a correction but is in a phase of increasing selling pressure. Additionally, the MACD lines are converging, approaching a bearish crossover, signaling that a downward trend acceleration is imminent.

$844 as the Last Bastion… Concerns Over Larger Decline if Broken

From a technical perspective, BNB has been oscillating around the $844 daily support within the downward trendline that has persisted since mid-October. Currently trading near $853, there are no clear signs of trend reversal yet.

Scenario if the $844 daily close is broken could lead to further declines toward the weekly support level of $709.29. In this case, a significant correction phase is highly likely to materialize.

Possibility of Rebound… Recovery to $923.14 Scenario

However, a rebound scenario cannot be ruled out. If BNB begins to recover, the 50-day EMA at $923.14 is expected to serve as the first resistance level. Breaking through and stabilizing above this level would weaken the short-term bearish narrative.

The current market sentiment is clear. With the simultaneous weakening of RSI, convergence of MACD, and the turn of the funding rate to negative, traders will inevitably focus more on whether the $844 support holds.