Cardano(ADA), bearish breakout signal ignited... Scenario of returning to $0.50 gains momentum

Signs of Market Sentiment Reversal

Cardano has recently shown a strong weekly rebound. As of Thursday, it is trading around $0.42, recording an increase of over 16% in the past 7 days. This is interpreted as a signal indicating a change in market structure beyond a simple technical rebound.

The accumulation activity of whale investors has intensified, leading to a recovery from the market downturn. According to the latest data from on-chain analysis platforms, large buy orders are continuously being executed, which is evaluated as a typical accumulation phase. At the same time, the oversold condition is gradually easing.

Sentiment Reversal in the Derivatives Market

Funding rates are one of the most reliable indicators at the lows. Recently, the weighted funding rate in the Cardano futures market has shifted from negative to positive, reaching around 0.0074% on Thursday. This situation indicates that long position holders are paying interest to short position holders, directly reflecting an increase in bullish sentiment.

Looking at past cases, such funding rate reversals have generally been accompanied by short-term rallies. The presence of buying dominance in both spot and futures markets suggests movements driven by participants aiming for structural gains rather than speculative weakness.

Technical Patterns and Upside Path

On the daily chart, Cardano has formed a classic bullish reversal pattern, a falling wedge, and successfully defended its lower boundary. After testing the support level last Saturday, active buying continued for four days, and the price has now recovered to around $0.43.

If an upward scenario unfolds, the immediate resistance is at the $0.49 level. Confirming a daily close above this level would set the next target at $0.56, where the 50-day exponential moving average is located. The RSI indicator has already escaped the oversold zone, recovering to 34, reducing concerns about further selling pressure, while the MACD indicator has formed a golden cross, clearly favoring buyers.

Downside Scenario and Defense Lines

Of course, in the event of a broad market correction, the situation would be different. In this case, the lower trendline of the falling wedge could be tested again, with $0.39 expected to serve as the final defense line. For short-term traders, whether this level holds as support will be key to their decision-making.

Significance of Reclaiming $0.50

Market attention is now focused on the psychological resistance level of $0.50. Whether this level is broken will likely determine if the move is a short-term rebound or a full-fledged trend reversal. All technical and supply-demand signals so far support the possibility of Cardano’s upward movement.