December 17 Technical Tracking: Latest Trends and Key Levels of the Four Major Assets

Market Background: Mixed Employment Data Signals, Fed Rate Cut Expectations Cool Down

Recent weeks have shown volatility in employment data. Non-farm payrolls fell by 105,000 in October, and although there was some improvement in November to 64,000, the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.6%, hitting a four-year high. These mixed signals have left the market in a dilemma—despite rate cut expectations pointing to January next year, the market’s pricing for further easing has cooled. Overall asset classes face consolidation pressure.

US Dollar Index: 98.0 Support Key, Short-term Fluctuations Unavoidable

On Tuesday (December 16), the US Dollar Index experienced a rollercoaster, initially dropping to a low of 97.8, then rebounding to 98.2, and further climbing to 98.5 intraday. Notably, the index rebounded after finding support at the Gann 2/1 line level, reflecting ongoing disagreement between bears and bulls in this range, making it difficult to form a trend in the short term—more characteristic of range-bound consolidation.

Trading Perspective: If the 98.0 support is effectively broken, the next test will be at 95.2. Conversely, to end the decline, a break above 99.3 is needed to reverse the situation.

• Support Levels: 98.0, 96.5, 95.2
• Resistance Levels: 98.5, 99.3, 100.0

Gold: Resistance Above Remains Strong, Range Consolidation Likely

On December 17, gold rose 0.36% intraday, reaching a high of 4342 USD. However, repeated attempts to break above 4350 USD have failed, indicating significant resistance. Although the upward trend has not reversed, the possibility of a short-term pullback to the 4220-4300 USD range cannot be ignored.

Future Trend: If it can break through 4381 USD, it will challenge 4438 and even 4570 USD. Conversely, falling below 4200 USD will reverse the upward momentum.

• Support Levels: 4300, 4220, 4130
• Resistance Levels: 4381, 4438, 4570

WTI Crude Oil: Urgent Correction Needed, 57.0 USD Becomes Rebound Ceiling

WTI crude oil rose 1.16% during December 17, reaching a high of 56.09 USD. Caution is warranted as oil has experienced four consecutive days of decline, hitting a four-year low, indicating a significant correction need in the short term.

Key Judgment: If the rebound is constrained at 57.0 USD, further declines may occur, testing 55.0 and even 52.0 USD levels. To reverse the medium-term downtrend, a break above 59.0 USD is necessary.

• Support Levels: 55.0, 52.5, 50.0
• Resistance Levels: 57.0, 59.0, 61.5

Nasdaq 100 Index: Downward Pressure Exists, Rebound Strength to Be Tested

The Nasdaq 100 index is currently stable around 25,200 points, consolidating. On the technical side, the AO indicator shows increasing downward momentum, suggesting skepticism about the sustainability of any rebound, warranting caution.

Risk Warning: If the rebound encounters resistance at 25,500 points, further decline to test 25,000 points is likely, with a possibility of reaching support at 24,000 points.

• Support Levels: 25,200, 24,900, 24,000
• Resistance Levels: 26,000, 26,300, 27,600

Overall Analysis: The four major assets are showing signs of high-level resistance and short-term consolidation. Market uncertainty about future policy directions remains. Traders should closely monitor whether key support levels can hold, as this will determine subsequent directional choices.