The commodity has high accounts, silver surges to a new high, and the USD/JPY exchange rate warns again.

The hidden secrets of the global markets in the past 24 hours—silver surging like a rainbow, USD/JPY approaching historical highs, and a strong rebound in US stocks—mask a subtle standoff in monetary policy.

Commodity Markets: Silver Breaks High, Gold Enters Consolidation

Driven by surging investment demand and tight global supply, silver prices soared to a record high, successfully breaking through the $67.0 level. Using moving averages to observe recent trends, silver has remained above its annual moving average for several consecutive trading days, indicating sustained bullish momentum. Meanwhile, gold prices stood at $4,338.6 per ounce, up 0.14%. After two consecutive days of forming doji patterns, gold entered a phase of structural adjustment. The oil market also performed well, with WTI crude rising 1.14% to $56.5 per barrel, reflecting expectations of a global economic recovery.

Exchange Rate Turbulence: Yen Under Pressure, Policy Red Line Under the US-Japan Mechanism

USD/JPY increased by 1.39%, approaching the 158.0 integer level. Behind this rally, the Bank of Japan’s recent decision to raise interest rates by 25 basis points failed to reverse the yen’s decline. Japan’s Finance Minister issued a clear warning—appropriate measures will be taken according to relevant agreements to address excessive exchange rate fluctuations, especially those driven by speculative unilateral volatility. The implication is that intervention windows are now open.

For high-leverage global macro hedge funds, the “cost-effectiveness” of the yen as a financing currency has clearly declined. Although nominal interest rate differentials still exist, the yen has depreciated after the rate hike, creating a contrasting phenomenon that will become a market focus moving forward.

Bond Market Observation: Global Yields Rise Together, Central Bank Policy Signals Confusing

The US 10-year Treasury yield rose by 3 basis points to 4.15%, while the 2-year Treasury yield increased by 3.2 basis points to 3.492%. In Japan, the Bank of Japan’s rate hike pushed the 10-year government bond yield above 2%, reaching a new high since 1999, indicating ongoing expectations of future rate hikes by the BOJ. Europe was no exception, with the French 30-year government bond yield climbing to 4.525%, a high not seen since 2009, reflecting uncertainty about Europe’s political and fiscal outlook.

US Stock Market Rebound: Tech Stocks Lead, Carry Trade Risks Temporarily Eased

Last Friday marked the “quadruple witching” expiration day for US stocks, with total contracts worth $7.1 trillion expiring. Driven by an 11.57% drop in the VIX fear index, market risk appetite improved, and the three major US indices generally rose—Dow Jones up 0.38%, S&P 500 up 0.88%, Nasdaq up 1.31%. Tech stocks performed especially well, with related companies’ shares rising between 3-6%. In Hong Kong, the China Gold Dragon Index rebounded 0.86%, and the Hang Seng Index night session futures closed at 25,843 points, up 118 points.

Strong quarterly earnings reports boosted this rally, while the risk of carry trade unwinding was temporarily alleviated.

Cryptocurrency: Bitcoin Adjusts, Ethereum Slightly Up

Bitcoin fell 0.34% within 24 hours, currently at $88,020, showing a recent trend of oscillation and adjustment. Latest data shows BTC at $91,950, down 1.78% over 24 hours. Ethereum dropped 0.03% in the past 24 hours to $2,976, but recent data indicates ETH has rebounded to $3,220, up 1.44% over 24 hours, reflecting a slight improvement in market sentiment.

Central Bank Battles: Fed Holds Steady, Rate Cut Outlook Changes

Federal Reserve officials have recently adopted a cautious stance. New York Fed President Williams stated that there is no urgency to further adjust interest rates at present, as recent employment and inflation data have almost not changed their expectations. Cleveland Fed President Mester further indicated that rate adjustments are unnecessary in the coming months, at least until spring, with the current rate range of 3.5% to 3.75% remaining unchanged.

The US December consumer confidence index rose less than expected, with the University of Michigan’s final consumer sentiment index increasing by 1.9 points to 52.9, but the current conditions index fell to a historic low of 50.4, reflecting ongoing consumer concerns about the economy. The latest Fed projections show officials only expect one rate cut next year, far below earlier market expectations.

Market Insights

Although this rebound injects short-term vitality into the markets, potential risks remain—such as exchange rate volatility caused by the Bank of Japan’s rate hike, bond market pressure from rising global yields, and persistent consumer confidence worries—all serve as reminders for investors to stay vigilant. Against the backdrop of the Fed maintaining high interest rates, volatility in commodities and cryptocurrencies will continue to be key focus areas.