Gold in 2026.. Is it approaching $5000? New predictions spark debate

The year 2025 was an exceptional year for gold, as gold prices experienced historic jumps reaching $4,300 per ounce in October, before later retreating toward $4,000, raising inevitable questions: Will this rally continue in 2026? And will we actually see a breakthrough beyond $5,000?

Demand for Gold Keeps Growing

Statistics tell a completely different story from what some might expect. The World Gold Council announced that total demand in Q2 2025 reached 1,249 tons worth $132 billion, a 45% increase from the previous year. Gold ETFs( achieved massive inflows, pushing their managed assets to $472 billion.

More importantly, holdings of these funds increased to 3,838 tons, approaching a historical peak. North America alone accounts for nearly half of the global demand with 345.7 tons in the first half of the year.

Central Banks Keep Buying

What truly supports this momentum is the actions of central banks. In Q1 2025 alone, central banks added 244 tons to their gold reserves, exceeding the historical average by 24%.

Now, 44% of the world’s central banks hold gold reserves, up from just 37% in 2024. China alone added over 65 tons, and Turkey approached 600 tons. This is a clear strategic shift toward hedging against the US dollar.

Limited Supply and High Costs

On the supply side, mine production reached 856 tons in Q1, a slight increase of only 1%, which is insufficient to close the widening gap between demand and supply. Extraction costs rose to $1,470 per ounce, the highest in a decade.

Additionally, recycled gold declined by 1% as people preferred to hold onto their assets, a clear indicator of bullish market expectations.

The Fed Opens the Door

The US Federal Reserve cut interest rates to a range of 3.75-4.00% in October, with additional cuts expected before the end of 2025. FedWatch platform forecasts suggest a further 25 basis point cut in December, marking the third cut since the start of the year.

BlackRock projected that interest rates could reach 3.4% by the end of 2026 in a moderate scenario. This means lower real yields on bonds, reducing the “opportunity cost” of holding gold as a non-yielding asset.

The Dollar Weakens and Debt Rises

The dollar index fell 7.64% from its peak in early 2025, while 10-year US bond yields dropped from 4.6% to 4.07%. This double weakness enhances gold’s appeal to foreign investors.

Global public debt surpassed 100% of GDP, prompting 42% of major hedge funds to increase their gold positions during Q3 2025.

Geopolitical Tensions Ignite

Trade tensions between the US and China, and Middle East conflicts, increased demand for gold by 7% year-over-year. As concerns about Taiwan and energy supplies escalated, prices surged past $4,300.

What Do Major Analysts Expect?

HSBC predicts that gold will reach $5,000 in the first half of 2026 with an annual average of $4,600. Bank of America also raised its forecast to a potential maximum of $5,000, with an average of $4,400, but warned of a possible short-term correction for profit-taking.

Goldman Sachs adjusted its forecast to $4,900, citing continued inflows from investors into gold funds and central banks. J.P. Morgan expects gold to reach $5,055 by mid-2026.

The most common range among analysts is between $4,800 and $5,000 as a potential peak, with an annual average between $4,200 and $4,800.

Middle East Outlook

In Egypt, forecasts indicate gold prices could reach approximately 522,580 EGP per ounce, a 158% increase over current prices.

In Saudi Arabia and the UAE, if gold indeed hits $5,000, this would translate to prices around 18,750 to 19,000 SAR and 18,375 to 19,000 AED per ounce, respectively.

Caution About a Correction

Despite the positives, HSBC warned that momentum might weaken in the second half of 2026, with potential corrections toward $4,200 for profit-taking. However, a drop below $3,800 is unlikely unless a major economic shock occurs.

Goldman Sachs warned that sustained prices above $4,800 will test the market’s true price credibility.

Technical Outlook: Where Are Prices Heading?

Gold closed November trading at $4,065 after touching a high of $4,381 in October. The price broke below the ascending channel but remains above the main trendline around $4,050.

Strong support appears at $4,000, and a break below could push the price toward the 50% Fibonacci correction at around $3,800. Conversely, a break above $4,200 opens the way toward $4,400 and then $4,680.

The RSI) (Relative Strength Index)( is steady at 50, indicating a neutral stance between selling and buying pressures. The MACD remains above zero, confirming that the overall trend is still bullish.

Technical analysis suggests continued sideways trading within a slightly upward sloping range between $4,000 and $4,220 in the near term, with the overall picture remaining positive as long as the price stays above the main trendline.

Summary: Is 2026 the Year of Gold?

Gold price forecasts look very strong on paper. Supporting factors are clear: dollar weakness, declining real yields, increased central bank purchases, record investment demand, and ongoing geopolitical tensions.

But all of this depends on inflation stability and the absence of sudden economic shocks. If real yields continue to decline and the dollar remains weak, gold is truly poised to hit record levels. Conversely, if market confidence returns and inflation drops sharply, the metal could enter a prolonged stabilization phase.

It’s crucial to closely monitor global events and economic data, as they will determine the actual path of gold in the coming months.